- INTRODUCTION:
You may notice as you digest the blog this week that some long awaited, from my perspective format changes have now been introduced.
Basically, my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers have sections 1-3 and now a larger PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only section 4 completes the blog. This new streamlined approach fits better with my schedule and allows me to be more concise.
Outstanding items…
I still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video. Not an excuse but last Thursday I had three hours put to one side for it, but when I first glanced at my screens at 4:30AM it was a sea of RED. No amount of coffee or other stimulant was going to put me in the best of moods for completing a “Mr. Happy” video. It was a 100% warm blue sky day and still warm, my wife and I went out for Lobster instead!!
My apologies, I will get this sorted in the coming week with the link placed in this segment of the blog (I think).
My EA’s (Expert Advisors – Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding. I had hoped to have progressed these further by now. I feel like I am back in school with this stuff, codes and such like. My partners are being very patient and totally supportive throughout this process.
The big issue is going to be how do I bring these EA’s into the PREMIUM SERVICE. I have still got to work that conundrum out!!
- THE FX MARKET PLACE:2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.
In no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.
GBP: RETAIL SALES, BORIS & THERESA MAYS’S SPEECH IN FLORENCE.
Retail sales were a blowout number. I had read a document from the CBI the day before that had indicated strength in sales so I was ready for it.
Boris Johnson is flexing, or rumoured to be. The GBP strengthened about 40-50 pips on the news that he may be resigning.
I digress but I had to laugh, I was on webinar when several Americans chirped up and commented about how poor old Boris was a clown. I only have this to say about clowns …1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC.
Moving on…
I remember the Sunday that Boris announced that he was supporting the BREXIT move, he was then the Mayor of London. That was the start of the cable sell off. Regretfully, I was long GBP/NZD. I remember being on twitter with a couple of traders I respect, discussing the effects of Boris on the cable.
His potential resignation is NOT causing 10% of the shenanigans his BREXIT support move did in the currency market.
The best for last…
Theresa May delivered a politician’s speech in Florence as far as I was concerned. Her previous keynote speech which she did earlier at Lancaster House in London laid out her governments position and basically, I thought she repeated most of that content again. She just stated her position, as is what politicians do. Cable sold off, bounced after the speech and then sold off once again.
The EU negotiating team probably loved it, high on rhetoric low on content specifics, full of waffle and bullshit. Just what Brussels would order every day of the week. In fact, Michel Barnier (Head EU negotiator from Brussels) said soon after Theresa May had finished that he found the speech “To be in a constructive spirit”. Need I say anymore.
May’s position as leader of the Tories and Prime Minister is tenuous to put it mildly; any sane person not a “Dotard” would look at the job of guiding the UK through BREXIT as a poisoned chalice. Therefore, for now I think no one will challenge her.
However, politicians are a strange breed and there are plenty of clowns wanting to be on the worlds stage. You cannot predict with certainty what might happen.
USD: FOMC RARE DECISION STATEMENT & PRESS CONFERENCE.
WTF… unbelievable … I am probably on my own here with these thoughts so it could be Scott v the World.
For the past God only knows how long, the FED has been data dependent. It has been almost to the point of can’t pee unless the data supports it.
Last Wednesday…
Bollocks to the fecking data. What are they smoking? What are they drinking? Because I want some of that.
The FED believes that two record breaking hurricanes (natural disasters) inside a month hitting two of the biggest economically contributing states in the union both with very, very large areas either under water, or with mass construction damage or both are not going to be producing anything for some time. Yellen said spending is expanding at a moderate rate, investment is increasing and labour data is strengthened. I don’t get it. All the data I have seen lately doesn’t say that and doesn’t support that view.
Then the cherry on the cake…inflation. What fecking inflation? Oh, yes…transitory. Transitory my arse. The U.S. economy is not in as great shape as we all thought it was going to be.
Janet Yellen “the uber dove” must be on medication as the statement and press conference commentaries were so damn positive.
The FED takes us for a pile of numpties. Ben Bernanke before her and Yellen herself tell us what’s suits them at the time. It’s NOT forward guidance, or anything resembling that. That went months ago. This is about covering one’s arse, nothing more and nothing less.
All one had to do was look at the markets after the knee jerk reaction to strengthen the USD. The following sessions after the Press Conference the DXY consolidated and then in the following US session it sold off again.
Equities reaction in the US to the FED balance sheet tightening from next month and an interest rate hike before the end of 2017 plus 3 more in 2018 was what? To do absolutely nothing.
I was gob smacked by the FX market on Thursday. It did not know what to do. It was clueless, directionless for hours and basically the day was best summed up as being a ‘nonsense, nothing made sense at all”.
2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:
2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:
2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS:
2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:
Not a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.
USD: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:
The Consumer Confidence numbers always interest me because albeit a backward-looking number it lets you know what is going on in the head of the consumer. Not that the data really matters anymore, it would appear that the FED is raising regardless and economic data is no longer considered.
GBP: CURRENT ACCOUNT:
With the major banks now ramping up their processes to leave the City of London the importance of trending this data takes on a greater value. It is inevitable that this number will get worse as BREXIT approaches and the BOE will look at this data and perhaps have an “Oh crap” moment questioning their decision to raise rates. Money flows are monitored and measured closely by the BOE.
This could be a surprising market mover.
CAD: GDP:
After mixed inflation data, last week this will be used no doubt as a barometer as to whether the BOC will raise again, or not raise again, before the end of 2017.
Economic data from Canada has been strong and the market is geared up for a hike. A strong number could see an overreaction. Not that we are ever used to seeing the Forex Market overreact!!
NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT & CASH RATE:
Hot on the heels of election. I would expect more of the same from the last meeting. Nothing new at all.
- THE PREMIUM SERVICE:
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- PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:
(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)
4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:
4.1.2: SENTIMENT, FUNDAMENTAL & MACRO THOUGHTS:
4.1.3: USD – SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS:
4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES:
4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS & STRATEGIES):
4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES & LIMIT ORDERS:
4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:
- CLOSING THOUGHTS & IDEAS:
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5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
As usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
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BLOG VERSION: #252 FREE NEWSLETTER
24th September 2017