USDJPY: Dollar looking positive for further gains by FX Charts

The big rise in the NFP sent US$Jpy rocketing up towards the 2014 highs of 121.84 on Friday, reaching  121.29 before easing off in sympathy with the lower equity markets which were hit by surging US Treasury yields now expectant of a June rate hike, closing at around 120.70.The daily indicators are pointing increasingly higher and a test of the 121.84 high would not now surprise, but which should be very strong resistance, being also where the top of the ascending channel lies but above which would see a run towards 122.00 and then on to the 15 July 2007 high at 122.42. In the longer term, the target of 124.13 (17 June 2007 high) would appear on the horizon but will take time given the resistance levels sitting in between. Note that the weekly indicators are not so supportive of a straight run higher, so the price action is likely to continue to be choppy in the weeks ahead I suspect, although buying dips remains the theme.

If we do see a dip, the first support will be seen at around 120.48 (11 Feb high) ahead of stronger buyers at the Fibo support at 120.33 (23.6% of 117.16/121.27) and 120.00. Back below 120.00 would see further bids at 119.70 (38.2%) and then at the 200 HMA at 119.55, although this seems some way off at present.

Exporters are currently happy to sell the dollar above 121.00, but the GPIF are likely to buy any decent dips due to the attractiveness of the US yields, where the 30 year has now reached 2.83% (up from 2.74% on Friday) while the 10’s are at 2.25% (up from 2.10%).

Economic data highlights will include:

M: Bank Lending, GDP, Trade Balance

T: Eco Watchers Survey

W: Machine Tool Orders

T: Consumer Confidence

F: Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production.

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