The US$ is still hovering above the 95.50 S/R level but European and US stocks have tried to bounce during the last session. The Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, gave a a testimony that seemed to soothe market jitters. Just how effective this will be and whether this becomes a dead cat bounce needs the outcome of future sessions before being defined.
NB: I am busy this coming w/e and the usual w/e updates may not be posted until Monday 15th.
General comment: Gold, Silver, the S&P500, US$ index, EUR$ index and EUR/USD continue consolidating in various lengthy range-bound patterns. Actually, Gold has started on a breakout move but is currently stalled under another major S/R level. I noted over the w/e how decent trending markets often evolve from such constricted market action. Thus, I continue to look for signs of any breakout activity by way of trend line breaks with increased momentum.
USDX daily: the index is still negotiating this next layer of support. A break of 95.50 would bring 92.50 into focus:
USDX weekly: still range-bound whilst it trades bewtween 100 and 92.50:
EURX daily: this is lower too:
Oil daily: we got the triangle breakdown but, now, the potential for a recent ‘Double Bottom’ off 27.50 looms. This is the level to watch in coming sessions:
S&P500 weekly: this chart hasn’t captured today’s data yet but with the flat close this Flag pattern is still holding. As mentioned throughout many posts, I’m watching the monthly support trend line here:
TC Signals:
Gold: this has now closed off after 780 pips and Gold is consolidating under major resistance from the $1,200 level and the top of the weekly Cloud:
Silver 4hr: this signal closed off for a loss of 20 pips. Note how this metal is consolidating above $15 but below a major descending wedge trend line:
EUR/GBP: this signal has closed off now for 180 pips BUT I had suggested price might pullback to test the 0.77 level. Any hold above this 0.77 level would suggest continuation of the 500 pip bullish ‘Inverse H&S’ I have been tracking:
GBP/JPY 4hr: this signal has closed off but note how price remains below the key 167 level. This level has been tested in what may evolve to be classic breakout theory: breakout, pullback to test, continuation. Time will no doubt tell:
Other FX: Watch today for impact from US Weekly Unemployment Claims and another US Fed Chair Yellen testimony plus an AUD RBA Gov Steven speech.
E/U 4hr: so much for any pullback! The triangle breakout has given up to 400 pips:
E/J: the wedge breakdown has given 230 pips. Watch that bottom triangle trend line. My MT4 chart has this at around 126.50 and so I have placed this support onto my Profit Source chart for comparison. It looks like another fairly weighty S/R level below the obvious 130 region!
A/U daily: this remains choppy and looks to be consolidating. Watch Gold for any move higher as i suspect that would take this pair with it. Watch also with today’s RBA Stevens speech:
AUD/JPY: watch the 80 level along with stocks. If stocks continue to carve out any recovery then 80 may become a base here. Any resumption of serious selling with stocks though would most likely take the A/J along too and below the major 80 threshold. This is a major level for this pair as the monthly chart shows:
GBP/USD 4hr: consolidating too? Watch for any momentum based breakout:
Kiwi: this looks rather bullish as it consolidates below a major bear trend line and any continuing US$ weakness might launch this above the trend line. I’m watching for any new TC signal here that evolves with a break of this trend line
U/J daily: I posted this potential H&S pattern last weekend. This was the chart from that post:
This is the daily chart now with a 340 pip move of a possible 900 pip H&S already carved out. I have my sights set on the 101.5 technical support level BUT whether the BoJ would allow this is another matter:
EUR/AUD 4hr: this triangle breakout move has given 570 pips. However, IMHO, if US$ weakness continues AND Gold rallies (lots of IFs here) then I would not be surprised to see the AUD$ move better than the EUR$. Just sayin’:
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