Whilst there was no consensus with Fed members about the timing of any US interest rate hike it does seem that 2015 has narrowed as a possible start date. ‘Several’ Fed members wanted June 2015, ‘others’ preferred late 2015 and a ‘couple’ wanted a push out to next year. I’ve read a few analyst reviews of these minutes and I’m a bit surprised that I haven’t seen the ‘can kicking’ metaphor used. The US$ has interpreted this as somewhat bullish news though and has recovered its losses from the Asian session but, it is worth noting, the gains have been relatively modest. US stocks cheered this FOMC news though with broad based gains but commodities have responded, as expected, with a move lower.
USDX 4hr: a recent bear trend line has been broken BUT note the ADX and the absence of any momentum here. As I have stated before, I want to see a break of the 61.8% fib and, then, the 100 level before being confident that this is the start of a new US$ rally:
USDX 4hr Cloud: yes, the index is back above the 4hr Cloud and aligned with the daily chart so this supports LONG US$:
USDX daily Cloud: However, there is a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross still open here and I want to see that close as well before being confident of bullish continuation:
EURX 4he: the EURX is back down at 96 support:
EURX 4hr Cloud: the index is below the 4hr Cloud and aligned with the daily chart so this supports SHORT EUR trades.
EURX daily Cloud: Like with the USDX though, there is a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross in play here that needs to close to support any SHORT EUR trading:
S&P500: is back above the Cloud so watch for any new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross. However caution is warranted as Alcoa has just kicked off earnings season and, although they had an earnings, they had weaker than expected Q1 revenue. This may be a warning bell for expectations with other US stocks about to report, especially those more vulnerable to higher US$ exchange rates:
Oil: has pulled back from the $55 neck line level:
Gold: is back near $1,200 support whilst it considers the FOMC minutes:
TC Signal:
U/J: I was stopped out above b/e with BoJ rate news. The trade has closed off but a new signal may be trying to form up here:
Other FX: this US$ turnaround means most pairs are still choppy. The new alignment on the FX indices, if it holds, does support LONG US$ and SHORT EUR trades though. GBP Interest Rate new is the main item on the calendar today. The usual Thursday US employment data is out too but any ‘miss’ here might rattle US$ sentiment:
E/U 4hr: note the absence of momentum here too:
E/J 4hr: little momentum here either:
A/U 4hr: holding above 0.76 support for now:
A/J: trading higher and this one is still confounding me!
Cable: choppy under 1.50 ahead of UK interest rate news:
Kiwi 4hr: choppy too with little momentum but there is a new 4hr triangle in play it seems:
GBP/JPY: ran into the 179 level again without success:
Loonie 4hr: the ‘Handle’ trend line is still holding for now:
Loonie monthly Cloud: showing the ‘Handle’ of a potential bullish Cup ‘n’ Handle forming up:
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