US$: at a short-term juncture

The US$ has made early gains this week on the back of a recovery with the Oil price, EUR$ weakness following poor EUR PMI data and GBP$ weakness due to growing Brexit fear. It has retraced to a key S/R zone and the success or otherwise at traversing this resistance might help determine the next move for the US$.

USDX 4hr: the US$ index has retraced up to the 50% fib of the recent swing low move. This is also the region of the 4hr 200 EMA and so price has stalled here for the moment. Any success at getting past this resistance will bring the 61.8% fib into focus but success there too would then suggest the index might make another crack at the key 100 level:

USDX 4hr Cloud: the index has made it up and out of the Cloud making for clearer movement from here:

USDX daily Cloud: the index is still below the daily Cloud though making for Ichimoku Divergence and overall, longer-term choppy conditions. I’m also noting how, with this US$ Ichimoku divergence on the 4hr and daily chart, that better trading opportunities continue coming off the 30 min time frame charts as shown with the FX pairs charts in the section below:

Oil daily: this seems to be trying to find a base near the GFC ’09 low of $33.55:

Gold 4hr: the 4hr triangle and $1,200 seem to be holding price action for now. Watch out for any continued US$ strength here though as this could trigger some weakness. Also, money flowing into Stocks won’t help the metal much either:

TC Signals:

A/U 4hr: a bit frustrating here as a TC LONG signal last week failed and took me with it. Now there has been a new TC LONG signal during my night that I have missed and this has moved on. This move evolved along with a triangle breakout. Ahead of my time I say

The 30 min chart shows how this trend line breakout came during the European session and kicked on during the US session:

A/U daily: there is a bit of resistance ahead for this pair, apart from that coming from any further RBA jawboning. There is the monthly chart’s previously broken triangle trend line and, after that, there is the recent wedge trend line that dovetails in with the daily 200 EMA. Any break above both of these levels would be most impressive! FWIW: Price is above the 4hr and daily NZD/USD Ichimoku Cloud:

EUR/AUD 4hr: this is another frustrating TC signal situation for me. This pair also gave a TC SHORT signal last week that failed but another triggered yesterday, along with a triangle breakout, BUT this signal has gone on already for 250 pips!

The 30 min chart here shows how this really got going during the European session

A/J 4hr: this has just triggered a new TC signal but any developing U/J weakness might drag it lower:

NZD/USD 4hr: this also triggered a triangle breakout, a new TC LONG signal and has also broken out from the 19 month bear trend line I have been stalking:

The daily chart shows how the 0.75 level near the 50% fib would make a decent target for any continuation move here. FWIW: Price is above the 4hr and daily NZD/USD Ichimoku Cloud:

The 30 min chart shows how the best move came during the US session though:

Forex:

EUR/USD 4hr: the E/U has pulled back to the 61.8% fib of its recent swing high move so watch for any make or break from this region:

E/J 4hr: this remains weak and under the key 126 level:

GBP/USD 4hr: I Tweeted yesterday to watch for any trend line breakout and, then, either a move to test the 1.40 or 1.46 level. This was the chart from that Tweet:

This is the 4hr chart this morning. Not quite down to the 1.40 but close enough. The 1.40 is the level to watch now, especially with tonight’s GBP Inflation Report Hearings: