This is just a brief post about how I am seeing the major FX pairs shape up as the new normal, post US President Election, tries to set in. I’m feeling a bit disconnected from the charts at the moment and this is not due to my w/e away. The surprise US Election win seems to have shifted the world’s axis a bit and, as such a shift would impact global weather patterns, I’m trying to assess how this result will impact market weather patterns! For now, it’s clear to see that the US$ has caught a ‘Trump Bump’ and this has impacted Gold and some of the Comm$ FX pairs. Whether this is the ‘new normal’ though remains to be seen and I suspect this strength will be impacted by ongoing political commentary as Trump polices are assessed.
USDX monthly: The US$ has caught a bid following the Trump win and the Bull Flag scenario looks to be coming back into contention here. Watch the 98.50 and then 100 levels as the month progresses:
Forex: check your trading calendar for events this week
EUR/USD: this has weakened with US$ strength. Watch for any make or break at the monthly support trend line and, after that, the 1.045 level.
EUR/JPY: I still see the 115 level as ‘the line in the sand’ here. Also, watch the monthly chart’s bear trend line that is coming into greater focus:
AUD/USD: Weaker here too with the stronger US$ and a multi-month trend line was broken last week. Watch for any follow through bearish activity to target the 61.8% fib that is down near 0.72. Note how price has respected the monthly and weekly bear trend lines. Watch with data this week and especially today’s CNY Industrial Production data:
AUD/JPY: Like with the EUR/JPY, there is a ‘line in the sand’ level here with the 80 region. Keep an eye on the bear trend line too as price is trying to break up through this but isn’t too convincing just yet:
Copper weekly: I am slipping this chart here under the AUD pairs as this may be some saviour for the them. Copper has made a bullish breakout from a triangle pattern and may be supported if Trumps construction mantra continues. If so, this may help to support the Aussie pairs somewhat:
NZD/USD: Much like the Aussie, this is testing a multi-month support trend line following increased US$ strength and, also, the RBNZ rate cut. Bearish follow-through might target the 61.8% fib down near 0.67 and is worth watching:
USD/JPY: The bounce up from the 100 region seems to be underway now. The bearish-reversal Inv H&S looks to be developing:
USD/CAD: This pair has gained much from the Trump victory dues to US$ strength and CAD$ weakness on NAFTA trade deal concern. I had previously noted that 1.40 might be a reasonable target as it is near the weekly charts 61.8% fib and is previous S/R. Note the monthly chart and how price action is trying for a triangle breakout!
USD/MXN monthly: I still think this is worth watching in case positive Trump momentum fades:
AUD/NZD monthly: keep an eye on this triangle too!
EUR/GBP: I had earlier said to watch for any make or break at 0.89 and for weakness to possibly target the broken trend line and 61.8% fib region. This was the chart back then:
This is the chart now. I do suspect this region will be tested:
Gold: I had suggested watching the daily chart’s triangle trend lines for any breakout and we ended up getting a bearish break. Watch now for any move down to test the 61.8% fib region near $1,180 which is also previous S/R:
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