From the FXWW Chatroom: Support – 1.1105-10 (fib/low), 1.1050-60 (fib/break)
Resistance – 1.1166 (200DMA)/ 1.1210-20, 1.1230-40, 1.1280-85
Comment: The US presidential debate came and went and we are none the wiser. Polarization amongst voters has never been this extreme and it is a sign of the times in the western world in general. Focus now returns to Europe which has its own juggling act to deal with. The Eurogroup finance ministers agreed to release another EUR 2.8 bn to Greece with the motivation that “important reforms have been undertaken” though it didn’t say whether the reforms have been successful. German banking is back on the radar after the failed negotiations over the weekend with the US Department of Justice. Reports suggest the European Central Bank gave special treatment and concessions during the EU stress test. Was this a one-off event or is it systemic? The ECB also conveyed over the weekend that tapering is far away and understandably so. While this EURUSD seems slow to react, there are too many open-ended questions. I expect the market to get increasingly uncomfortable especially with the backdrop of disparate central bank outlooks in Europe and US. Stay short EURUSD from 1.1200-30 level, stop at 1.1180. Expect another test of 1.1100-10 and then sub 1.1050.
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