THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU
INTRODUCTION:
Last week was as they say…”One helluva week”.
I made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.
The cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.
In fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?
Whilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.
Nevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”
THE FX MARKET PLACE:
LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:
Whilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.
Everything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated
effort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).
The minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.
There are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.
So, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.
Right now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.
WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:
THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
I trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.
Over the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.
I am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.
As stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.
Everything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.
We are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.
Let me elaborate…
Rightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.
Keeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.
- If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.
- Contractors are always busy and small business grows.
- People are hired and wages improve.
- The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.
- Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.
- Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.
- Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.
We are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?
Yes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.
Yes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.
Yes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.
Yes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%… (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.
For nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.
Central banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.
Politicians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.
Back to my nightmare….
- DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS
- HOUSING BUBBLES
- BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY
- EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT
- JAPAN FAILURE
If the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.
DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:
He’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.
The elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.
THE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.
THE DONALD & THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.
HOUSING BUBBLES:
Whilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.
We are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?
Remember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.
HOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.
BREXIT:
There is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.
In 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.
As the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.
In addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.
I am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.
Let me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.
Remember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.
David Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?
Are all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?
Am I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!
BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.
EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:
In my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.
Mario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.
27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.
What happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: –
GERMANY: Alternative for Germany
FRANCE: National Front
ITALY: Five Stars
SPAIN: Podermos
NETHERLANDS: Party for Freedom
AUSTRIA: Austrian Freedom Party
FINLAND: Finns Party
On Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.
EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.
JAPAN FAILS:
From the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.
We are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.
The debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.
JAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.
- DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS
- HOUSING BUBBLES
- BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY
- EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT
- JAPAN FAILURE
We have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.
It’s all about confidence.
At the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.
Most central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.
From a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?
Will one domino fall taking the rest with it?
COMING UP THIS WEEK:
THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:
(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to www.forexfactory.com and www.tradingeconomics.com for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).
SUNDAY: N/A.
MONDAY: N/A.
TUESDAY: N/A.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.
THURSDAY: N/A.
FRIDAY: N/A.
THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW):
(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)
My comments are contained on the charts.
EUR/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221
GBP/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497
AUD/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222
NZD/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762
USD/CAD – Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113
USD/CHF – Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900
USD/JPY – Weekly Closing Price: 110.11
MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:
The FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.
We are light on news that interests me this week.
Be prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be a head of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.
I think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.
As usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Take care,
Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
DATE: 21st May 2016
BLOG VERSION: #29 FOREXTELL
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