Top Currency Themes and Trades 2015
1. This trend is a credible friend: Short EUR/USD
2. Dollar borrowers are breaking down: Long USD versus MYR, SGD, TWD
3. Long is just so last year. This year, short is in: Short GBP/SEK
4. Old carry habits die hard: Short EUR/INR
5. Structural strength beats cyclical softness. Long MXN/COP
6. Real rates are a real issue. Long USD/TRY
7. Counter consensus ‘bottom draw’: Short EUR/JPY
Trade summary
1. Short EUR long USD at 1.2290, target 1.10, stops at 1.3050
2. Long USD 1Y Fwd versus MYR, SGD, TWD, at 3.54, 1.3160, 30.91 outrights;
targets 3.80, 1.4250, 33.65; stops at 3.28, 1.2550, 29.90 (spot)
3. Last year’s long is this year’s short: Short GBP/SEK at 11.78, target 10.68, stops
at 12.50
4. Short EUR/INR 1Y NDF at 80.83 outright, target 69.15 stops at 80.0 (spot)
5. Structural strength beats cyclical softness. Long MXN/COP at 161.50, target 182,
stops at 152
6. Where are real rates just too low? Long USD short TRY 6M Fwd at 2.34 outright,
target 2.50, stops at 2.12 (spot)
7. Short EUR long JPY at 149.35, target 132, stops at 157
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