Outlook for EURJPY; EURGBP; GBPAUD; AUDNZD

EURJPY: EurJpy had a week of consolidation, ending up just 25 points above where it began last Monday and with the longer term charts looking mixed, we could be in for more of the same. The technical points are unchanged. The initial topside target would be for the cross to regain 140.00, above which would then head on to last week’s 140.65 high and to  the double top at 141.00 (4/9 June highs). Further out, the cross could accelerate towards the Dec 2013 high at 145.68 and then eventually to the SHS target at around 147.80 that we mentioned before. This is a long way off yet and a negative outcome for Greece, could see a strong reverse to the downside, so don’t get too excited yet.On the downside, last week’s low was at 138.05, below which would head back towards 137.00, which will be very strong support.  This is where the reverse Head/Shoulders neckline lies, as does the 3 month rising trend support and both the 200 DMA and the 100 WMA. As long as the cross remains above here, the technical outlook suggests that it will eventually head higher, towards a measured objective at around 147.80, as per the chart, below.

Support at 137.00 is critical though, and a break of this at any time would potentially see a steep selloff, potentially back towards 130/132. This currently looks unlikely, and while the weekly chart point higher buying dips towards 137.00 seems to be the plan. I would not necessarily be buying it right here, as the daily charts look as though they are rolling lower, for another test of 138.00. Anything under here would seem to be a buy opportunity, with a tight stop at around 136.75.

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EURGBP: The cross continues to chop around within the broad 0.7100/0.7400 range of recent weeks. This could continue, although with the UK economy picking up and traders looking at the possibility of a rate hike later in the year, while at the same time the Euro is weighed down by Greece, it would seem that there is a good chance that the downside could start to gain some momentum.Having closed just above last week’s lows at 0.7124, further losses would revisit the May low at 0.7054 and the March low at 0.7013. If Greece does default, this could come about rather quickly, and if the cross breaks below 0.7000, then look for a run towards the descending channel base at 0.6950 and possibly lower, with an eventual target at the Fibo support at 0.6650 (76.4% of 0.6580/0.9802), although this is a long way off yet.

With the daily indicators picking up downside momentum, rallies will run into sellers at 0.7200 and again at the 100 DMA at 0.7260. The general plan seems to be one of looking to sell into strength, with a SL placed above the 200 Month MA at 0.7375..

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GBPAUD: GbpAud headed sharply higher last week and currently sits at 2.0425, just below last week’s high at 2.0548. The daily charts are becoming overbought but the longer term indicators point to further gains, where resistance will arrive at 2.0717 (50% pivot of 2.7055/1.4380). Beyond this would head on towards  the July 2009 high at 2.0979, above which there is very little to stop the cross heading on to 2.2213 (61.8% of 2.7055/1.4380). Don’t get too excited yet.If the current resistance holds, which it may well do in the coming week, then back below 2.0200 would find support at 2.0000.  Below here, the first Fibo support is seen at 1.9750 (23.6% of 1.7214/2.0548), below which the 100 DMA is at 1.9560 and the rising trend support is at 1.9300, although this is looking increasingly distant..

Buying dips towards 2.030/50, ahead of the 21 Feb high at  2.0028, remains the theme, with a SL sub 2.000.

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AUDNZD:  Having gapped higher following the RBNZ rate cut on 11 June, the cross has continued to make good gains, particularly following last weeks underwhelming release of the NZ GDP. The 4 hour charts, and increasingly the dailies too, are looking overbought, so we could be in for a bit of a correction, possibly back to last week’s low at 1.1047 or even to the 100 WMA at 1.0880, although this looks unlikely early in the week.The downside chart gap will not be filled until 1.0780 but this could take a long time to be satisfied and with the weekly and monthly charts looking very positive  we could be in for a break of the Oct 2014 high at 1.1300, above which would most likely see fresh buying, further underpinning the cross. Having closed right on the monthly Kijun  at 1.1250, if this, and then 1.1300 both get taken out, look for stronger advances towards the Nov 2013 high at 1.1490 and even to the Sept 2009 high at 1.1660.

Overall, looking for areas to buy dips, or a weekly close above the nearby resistance, seems to be the theme..