From the FXWW Chatroom – NZD has well and truly broken out of its Jun-Oct downtrend but has subsequently stalled with the Fed holding it’s hawkish line and US data generally supportive of their outlook. While the Fed underpins USD demand we see NZD as stalled for now, with good offers expected to cap NZD up to 68 cents. Brexit developments (more push back, negative GBP) will also help keep NZD offered to start this week in line with GBP. Support will come back in to Sep highs and most recent break level around 6650 (also the 100day m/a) with subsequent demand expected closer to 66 cents. But we do not see that big of a correction this week.
This week there remains plenty of local data. In Aus we get Business Confidence (Tues), Wages Prices (Wed) and the Aussie Employment Lottery on Thursday. Guy Debelle speaks on Thursday as well. Locally, we’ll watch only the NZ manu PMI on Friday.
Tonight is a US Holiday tonight (Veteran’s Day). Fed speakers will be watched every night. We’ll also have one eye on the German ZEW, a run of China data (retail sales, UP) on Wed, UK Retail Sales and EA Trade and CPI.
Finally we’ll watch for movement re Brexit. And news on The Italian budget as things seem to be coming to a head – with only minor tweaks suggested ahead of the EU’s deadline on Tuesday.
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