From the FXWW Chatroom – NZD’s squeeze seems largely done for now with a breather on Friday and offered tone on the open this morning, despite UK headlines seeing GBP higher first thing. Data will drive our market this week with all eyes on the Fed, RBA and RBNZ. We feel like we have exhausted this recent correction (in NZD moving higher). We have tested and failed the 100 day m/a at 6664 and open offered so early this week we would expect some profit taking for those who managed to catch the move higher on Thursday. Short term support will be 6600-20 (Oct lows, down trend channel res now support). On the topside the 100day remains resistance at 6664 and then prev Sep and Friday highs at 6690-6700.
With the RBNZ this week our view is that Adrian will continue with his dovish tone and for this reason NZD will be capped for now, barring an offshore surprise. But midterms in the US will definitely hold our attention first up and likely trump the RBNZ in terms of overall market sentiment.
With the RBNZ this week our view is that Adrian will continue with his dovish tone and for this reason NZD will be capped for now, barring an offshore surprise. But midterms in the US will definitely hold our attention first up and likely trump the RBNZ in terms of overall market sentiment.
On the data front: It’s shaping up to be a big week with a range of high profile data releases:
Locally we get NZ unemployment on Wednesday before the RBNZ meeting on Thursday. Truckometer on Friday.
In Aus there is the RBA meeting on Tuesday and Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday
In the US we get ISM data first up but will count down to the Fed on Thursday. And midterm election results are expected this week (from Tuesday).
In the UK it’s Brexit watch with headline out over the weekend sounding positive – and we get the UK GDP release on Friday NZTime.
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