THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU
INTRODUCTION:
Easy things first.
I am back from house hunting on the east coast of Canada and, I am pleased to say that my wife and I have found a new home just outside of Halifax, Nova Scotia. We are delighted with the house and we are both really excited about the impending move.
On the negative side. If you follow me on twitter, if you are a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber or a regular reader of this blog, you would be aware that for months I have been plagued by a series of software calamities, initially brought about by upgrading to ios sierra. These issues were exacerbated by a virus on my main Mac desktop. Matters came to a head last Monday. I could not get sound on the webinar broadcast for the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE. Talk about stress. I thought that my recent trading was stressful enough to manage but eventually I found out that the recent addition of protection via McAfee was not such a great idea after all as it was blocking me. There were numerous network issues that McAfee did not like, my 5 remote printers to name 5 things and, I was prepared to live with this, but blocking my headset!!… for God’s sake give me a break.
McAfee has been uninstalled, it has ceased to be, it has moved on, it is no more and it never will be again as far as I am concerned.
I really apologize to those of you who were waiting patiently for me to roll into action on the Webinar last Monday. Hopefully next Monday the 27th March, all will be back to normal. Being away for a week operating on my MacBook Air, I was really looking forward to the show after having a good old look around the charts.
Leading on from the pleasantries…
Bollocks.
What a pig of a week I have had; you can put lipstick on it but it’s still a fecking pig.
As I have stated in previous blogs my aim was to clear out the dross, drain the swamp… so to speak of trades I no longer wanted. I have done that but added more trades that are up in my face. Longer-term, I am comfortable with them and I am adding more smaller positions at lows and highs (buying dips and selling rips), but as you know it always looks darkest when buying with a RED candle coming towards you or selling with a big GREEN candle coming towards your entry level. Such is life.
I am making a few pips this month, which is great, however, on the negative side I am sitting in CORE POSITIONS all under water. I am holding small positions but with quite wide stops, on the positive side not much $$$ at risk thankfully.
Next time you see a junk mail telling you trading forex is a piece of cake and you are a dipstick if you cannot make money out of this market, respond telling the sender to feck off. I am tired of reading about all these fantastic traders who report entries at the top and exits close to or at the bottom, or vice versa. Trading is basically you versus the world, and do not let anyone influence you to think any other way. I will make my 10,000 pips of net profit this year but it will not be easy. To believe the FX market is easy is naïve. Remember, the big banks are pulling back their operations because even with their wealth and monetary power to influence they still screw it up.
In addition, whilst I am on my first soapbox of this blog. If these robots that keep appearing mainly in my Gmail inbox are so damn good why haven’t the banks bought them up so the retail trader can’t have them. It’s dead simple… they do not work.
Still on the soapbox…
I just don’t get it. At times, I think that I am losing my mind. I read, examine and force myself to listen to chart only technical trader’s ideas and reasons behind trades. If you are a 15-minute trader, which I am not, I can see it, but in the time it takes me to make a mug of coffee, these traders have more often than not completed two trades. So much time is given to the 15-minute trader, maybe it’s the way to go moving forward.
When I first started trading currencies I used to use a combination of a 5 ,15 and 45-minute chart to enter a trade style called a pullback strategy. It works. But it does not work in this market, or maybe it’s just me, I can’t get it to work. It’s a damn good strategy and effective. In 2014, 2015 and last year, I used this strategy quite a bit and for my shorter-term trades and it was effective. The odd shorter term trade would develop into a swing trade from the original set up. I have said to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers who have been starved of my shorter-term set ups of FLASH and RADAR trades this year that I hoped after the FOMC interest rate decision some state of market normality and acceptance would step back in. Like Diana Ross… ”I’m Still Waiting”.
Not getting too anal, but I have checked the parameters and tried it out on a demo account. I must be careful, I have two or three big hitter’s subscribers who despite the warnings and risks will load up on the short-term trades to trade with momentum. I know it sounds absolutely crazy, but over 75% of the time the reversals back in the trends are just not happening. Therefore, one of my keys of success with shorter-term trades was my identification of high probability trade set ups. At 75% against me, I will not risk my money nor the money of my subscribers until this ratio is at least 75% in my favour and not the markets.
So, these short-term technical traders are they just gambling? Could be, because you never hear or see them if a trade goes the wrong way.
Trading, especially FX trading is all about RISK MANAGEMENT and POSITION SIZING. If I have to sit and wait for my trade so be it. You need the patience of a saint trading FX.
Back to the markets…
It would appear that all is just fine and dandy over in the UK and the EUROPEAN UNION and EUROZONE.
I get it. The UK printed a beat on CPi. Holy Mother of God… if you devalue your currency over 15% what the hell do you expect. The UK hasn’t even triggered A50 yet and we are now hearing of interest rate increases. I am re-visiting my thoughts on the BREXIT, A50 and all things UK in the soapbox section 5 later.
Hallelujah, the EUROZONE and EUROPEAN UNION is safe… Geert Wilders did not win the Dutch election he was crushed. My arse he was crushed. The incumbent Prime Minister Rutte lost 25% of the parliamentary seats he had prior to the election and Wilders gained 33% more seats at the election. Granted the racist is not in power, but the fecker wasn’t crushed and to claim that it was a clear and resounding victory for the Dutch process is pure Walt Disney. Holland is, was and as long as I am alive and not pushing up daisies, will always be a weak coalition run country.
Next, we had the French Presidential debate when Macron did very well and was by all accounts hailed as the victor. The EUR/USD spiked 60-80 pips on this news. Pundits are now claiming 1.1000 to 1.1400. They say that this plus improving economic and inflation data from the EUROZONE is enough to push the single currency higher. FFS, what about BREXIT.
BREXIT is not just potential bad news for the UK, it also has ramifications for the EU as well. Mind you the same flutes talking EUR/USD at 1.1400 are the same flutes talking parity next week should there be some bad EU news coming across the wires.
You must in my opinion, keep the FUNDAMENTALS in your head at all times. They will win out over the “technicals” on every occasion. Listen and note what the Central Bank Governors and Presidents say. Obtain copies of their speeches highlight the salient points. Over the longer-term this will stand you in good stead over the numpties on TV or your twitter feed. Punters can get it right every now and then but it’s gambling. Most of them have “no skin” in the game so to speak.
Moving on…
How could I not include a paragraph about “THE DONALD!”
So, it would appear that the TRUMP TRADE is in doubt. “THE DONALD” is struggling with the new job. It’s probably much bigger than he thought. His dictatorship approach that he had in the TRUMP BUSINESS just will not cut it in Washington.
The repeal of OBAMACARE being the case in point. What an absolute fiasco. His “enough is enough” take it or leave it style, which frankly is a good one to adopt at times, otherwise you can sit there negotiating for days on end going around in circles day after day. did not work. Career politicians are strange beasts, especially if they are in safe seats. They could not give a rat’s ass about doing the right thing, whether for constituents or party. It is all about self-preservation. The only threat to their existence is expulsion from the party and given the US desire to take everything to a courtroom the process is long drawn out and appealed over and over.
Donald Trump’s draining of the swamp needs to be done across his own party as much as the Democrats. Washington is dysfunctional, not managed and politicians are 100% self-serving.
“THE DONALD” has probably taken on much more than he can chew. If he thought that threats would work in Washington… think again. This is politics not business.
Still More…
After last week’s fiasco…
THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE webinars.
#8 this Monday 27th March at 5:30PM.
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THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:
ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:
MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:
From my perspective, not a very busy week on economic data: –
This worries me as it will be equities, geopolitical events, BREXIT, the EUROZONE and “THE DONALD” that will drive markets.
Do not forget March 29th BREXIT TRIGGER DAY for A50.
- USD: Consumer Confidence numbers are always an indicator that I take seriously. If people are spending or feel confident to spend money this is a plus for an economy. If they are not spending the opposite applies. Given everything that is going on in the USA, I strongly suspect that this release will take on greater importance than usual this Tuesday.
- GBP: Current Account Data is backwards looking by about 90 days. Right now, it is an indicator that interests me because of BREXIT. It is all about currency demand and flows.
USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT & RESISTANCE:
The charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.
EUR/USD:
GBP/USD:
AUD/USD:
NZD/USD:
USD/CAD:
USD/CHF:
USD/JPY:
THE SOAPBOX:
LET THE FUN AND GAMES BEGIN (PART ONE:
So, as far as I can see article 50 declaring the UK exit process begins on March 29th, 2017 when it is said that Theresa May the UK Prime Minister will actually trigger the mechanism for the BREXIT process to begin
Since the referendum vote in June last year when the UK electorate voted to exit the EUROPEAN UNION, sterling versus the USD has devalued 15%, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, stepped up to the plate immediately to support the financial markets with increased QE (Quantitative Easing) and an interest rate cut.
Since then it has been one long news release of headlines such as; cable to parity, cable BREXIT declines are now baked in, Carney is going to raise rates as we now have inflation in the UK, it’s going to be a hard BREXIT, it’s going to be a soft BREXIT, we will create a tax free zone in the heart of London, we are not going to pay a bill of €64 million to exit the EUROPEAN UNION, no trigger of A50 no discussion on exit terms, the UK will get no favours on exiting the EUROPEAN UNION… on and on it went week after week.
Let me just remind everyone… if you are reading this blog on the day it was posted, Article 50 has STILL NOT been invoked.
However, here we are under a week away and the gamblers are out regarding what the GBP will do on the announcement?
I do not know what the cable will do when the article will trigger. I suspect it will drop initially on the news and then it will bounce back, but I do feel that from the trigger date until the exit from the EU (in 2 years or more), the cable along with the EUR/GBP and to some extent the EUR/USD, could possibly be very much a news driven currency.
I write this because we are in unchartered territory. I have written this before but let me remind you.
The only country that has previously exited the EUROPEAN UNION was GREENLAND. It took GREENLAND two years to do it. The UK has the same ambitious target in mind. Frankly given the complexities of the UK position in the EU vis-à-vis GREENLAND, in my opinion two years may be rather ambitious.
In addition, the BREXIT negotiations will not be friendly because the lead time from the actual referendum vote until the A50 trigger will be invoked will be about 9 months. In this period, the negotiating positions have been aired in public and it’s NOT cordial, far from it.
The UK want trade but they do not want freedom of movement at any price, allegedly up to a no deal position.
The EUROPEAN UNION cannot make the process easy, nor can they show any benefits of leaving the EU because this would feed the populist movements and a contagion effect would probably be in play.
We could a Mexican standoff on day one. Do NOT rule it out.
There will be mind games, silly games and possibly party games including musical chairs before these negotiations are completed.
As I understand it, the pathway forward is going to be something like this: –
- A50 triggered by UK on March 29th, 2017.
- On April 29th, 2017, the remaining 27 EU members meet to discuss the UK request to withdraw.
- There is then a period of two years set aside when negotiations begin. A draft of the deal agreed between both parties is put before the 27 leaders (if this is still the number in two years!!).
- 20 of the current 27 member countries totaling at least 65% of the EU population needs to approve the exit deal.
- It is then ratified by the European Parliament.
- If at the end of two years of negotiations nothing is finalized they can be extended only if all member countries agree.
- If no agreement between the two sides is negotiated. The UK leaves the EUROPEAN UNION.
- The UK Parliament repeals the 1972 European Communities Act.
- Should the UK want back into the EU it must go through the same procedures that any new entrant applies with.
Easy peasy… if only.
This will not be an easy process for the UK. As the major banking clearing centre for the EU and EUROZONE, London stands to lose a great deal of its standing around the globe as a financial area of excellence. It will still be an important financial centre but not with the same gloss. This is a fact that cannot be cast aside glibly.
The world’s major banks sit in the City of London. If these banks want to continue to have a major presence in Europe, they will have to relocate. Plans are afoot already and I strongly suspect that relocation announcements will start dropping into the media soon as the invocation of A50 occurs. In my opinion, this reality will hit cable. No matter how much you hear BREXIT A50 trigger prices levels are baked in, this is now reality, it is much different in my opinion.
Next you will hear of UK job losses for those staff that are not re-located. Do you really think this is good news? Estimates of job losses being floated about are circa. 100,000.
Then we will have poor / weak capital flows. Many of the multi-national Banks will just have a bureau style approach to the UK, the major thrust of operations will be either in Dublin, Frankfurt or wherever, the movement of funds in and out of the UK decreases. This is big news for currencies and the UK economy etc.
If this bad news strikes home hard in the UK. The calls for a stronger negotiation stance will grow. Intransigence will then grow into the negotiating team. Marry that up with the expected no nonsense approach from the EUROPEAN UNION negotiators who do not want a contagion on their hands and we have games…. LET THE FUN AND GAMES BEGIN…. (PART ONE) …
CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
As usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Take care, have a great trading week.
Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
BLOG VERSION: #54 FOREXTELL
DATE: 26th March 2017.
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