| INDICES/COMMODITIES | ||
| S&P Futures | 1865 | The S&P has seen a steep selloff in very thin late US holiday conditions and has very nearly made it to our 1860 target. We may get a bit of a bounce when the US returns today on some profit taking at levels not seen for a long while, but the overall trend remains lower, for a move towards 1800/05. The dailies are now oversold though so we may get a squeeze higher, possibly back above 1880, towards Friday’s close at around 1895. If seen it should present a good sll opportunity with a SL placed above 1925. |
| DJI | 16256 | The Dow has collapsed again and from Friday’s close at 16430 it has unexpectedly reached our 16250 target (low 16222). As we said on Friday, I think we are heading on towards 16000 and eventually  to 15300, so longer term players should stay short. Rallies back to Friday’s close (16400/450), if we see them, are selling opportunities |
| ASX SPI | 5103 | The SPI headed lower again and looks as though there is more to come with a good chance that we could be headed for a look at 5030 (38.2% of 3952/5669). Rallies will now find sellers at 5130, above which 5150 will be strong resistance, and probably a decent level to sell it again should we see it. |
| GOLD | 1233.68 | Gold headed up to the resistance at 1235 (high 1237) today but has so far been unable to make a sustained move higher, although if the downside move in the stocks continues we may see a move back into Gold, with the weaker dollar also likely to assist any upside move. 1235 is still under pressure and a squeeze towards 1250 should not be ruled out. The downside looks supported for now at 1220. |
| SILVER | 17.46 | While the current action remains choppy and while there may be a near term upside bias, there is no change in the medium term outlook and trading from the short side, structurally, is still preferred, looking for an eventual retest of the trend low at 16.67. Patience is required though, and the current dollar weakness may take Silver a bit higher first. Leave stops on shorts above 17.75, as above there could see a squeeze back to 18.00/20, where I think it would again be a sell. |
| OIL(WTI) | 85.12 | WTI had a choppy session but has ended up roughly where it started and there is no change in view. While  the 4 hour charts point higher buying dips could be the plan, looking for an advance back to 86.25 (100 HMA) and possibly on towards the 200 HMA, currently at 88.25. The downside will find buyers at 84.00/50. While the short term trend appears to be headed higher, the dailies still point sharply lower so it will continue to be highly volatile. If we do see 87.50/88.50 over the next few sessions, I think it likely that it would be a decent medium term sell, in preparation for another look at the trend lows. |
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