Indices/Commodities Outlook by FX Charts

 

INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2020 After testing 2047, the S&P has headed lower as the choppy trade continues. With the momentum indicators not giving any real help, a neutral stance is required, although I suspect we may be in for another test of the 100 DMA at 2000 and possibly the recent 1967 low. Rallies towards 2050/60 look like a sell, although a break of 2060 would suggest another run towards 2085 and possibly on to 2100. Sidelined.
DJI 17560 Ditto the SP. A neutral stance is probably the best outcome, although a test of the downside would not really surprise, where the first major support is seen at the 100 DMA at 17250. Today’s high at 17750 will act as intial resistance ahead of 17850. Keep stops on shorts tight above here as we could then be in for another run to/above 18000.Sidelined.
ASX SPI 5341 After an early rally to 5405, the SPI headed lower to test the rising trend support that we mentioned yesterday, as the choppy conditions continue. I remain pretty neutral on the indices and would look for a day trade only as their are easier products at present to take a medium term view on. While 5315/25 holds the downside, we may see a squeeze back towards the 200 HMA at 5370. A break of the trend support would head towards 5300 would open up a run to the 100 Week MA at 5265 and the 6 Jan low at 5255.Sidelined.
GOLD 1235 As we suspected yesterday, Gold managed to profit from the risk-off tone seen elsewhere and has headed on towards the next resistance at 1238 (50% pivot of 1345/1138), for a gain of about $17 on the day. Momentum is positive, and on a break of 1238/40 we could now be in for a run towards the 200 DMA at 1255. The downside now looks supported at 1215/20 and this needs to hold if we are to make further progress, otherwise it is back to 1200 and below. If the strong dollar trend resumes, this will  put a lid on any rally in Gold, although I suspect today, that this will not be too much of an issue.
SILVER 16.61 Silver did as we thought today and retested last week’s 16.70 top although it has so far been unable to build on the gains. If 16.70 can be overcome then look for a run towards 17.00 and then the 100 DMA at 17.15. The downside will find bids at 16.45 (100 HMA) and then at 16.25 (200 HMA) and at 16.00, although I dont really see it down here today. For the time being dips would appear to be buying opportunities.
OIL(WTI) 45.91 WTI had another tough day, taking out 46.00 and finishing near new trend lows of 45.60. The longer term scenario still looks to point lower with the weeklies/monthlies showing little sign of turning around and the next major support is not seen until 42.27 (76.4% of 10.47/147.15). The topside will find resistances at 46.50 48.00 and at the 200 HMA at 50.20. Selling rallies still seems the way to go, but it is pretty wild, so keep stops in place, or even better stay out of it!

 

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