| INDICES/COMMODITIES | ||
| S&P Futures | 2095 | The S+P finally broke above the recent range top at around 2080, in heading to a high of 2096 on Friday, and by the look of the indicators a test of 2100 is just a matter of time, beyond which we could be looking at a retest of the all time highs at 2116. Caution is warranted though, as the latest Corporate reporting season begins this week and if results are greatly impacted by the stronger dollar, we could see a bit of a lid put on any further upside momentum for equities in the near term. The downside now sees support at 2080 ahead of the consolidation area within the 2065/75 area. Below here looks unlikely for a while but further losses would head to 2050 and to the base of the recent range of the last 3 weeks at 2030. |
| DJI | 17973 | The DJI finally made it to the top end of the target area of last week, reaching a high of 17985 and closing near its peak. As with the S+P, some caution is warranted in view of the upcoming US reporting season, but the indicators look generally positive, for a test of 18000, beyond which would suggest a run to 18075 and then to 18120. Beyond this the all time high of 18265 would come into view but will take a while. The downside will find bids at 17900/850, below which would head back into the consolidation area above the 100 DMA at 17740, but which is currently looking increasingly distant. |
| ASX SPI | 5975 | The SPI again tested the support at 5918 on Friday, where the 100/200 HMA held it up before a squeeze higher through the session to finish close to its highs of 5980. There is no real change in the outlook and a break of 5980 is required to trigger stops that could carry it on to the recent 6010 high. Above here would find close-by resistance at 6020 (May 2008 high) but beyond which there is not too much to stop it heading towards 6075 and then to 6100. On the downside, 5940 will provide intraday support, although it looks unlikely to be seen in the coming session. Under here though, 5918/08 will again act as minor support (5908: 200 HMA) ahead of 5900, below which could see a run towards 5880 but not for quite a while I suspect. |
| GOLD | 1207 | Despite the dollar’s strength Gold is back above 1200, having reached 1210 on Friday before closing a little lower after being capped by the 100 DMA. In the bigger picture it remains within the recent overall range of recent weeks and the dailies are fairly flat so we might expect more of the same. The shorter term indicators do now point a little higher though and a break of the 100 DMA may bring about a squeeze towards 1215 and then to the recent high at 1224, above which the 200 DMA at 1233 will provide a further cap. Back below 1200, the downside looks well underpinned at 1180/90 (1183: 50% pivot of 1142/1224 ). Neutral. Mild short term upside bias, but looking to sell into strength in anticipation of the dollar uptrend to continue in the longer term. |
| SILVER | 16.42 | Silver rallied off the 16.13 low, where the Fibo support at 16.10 (61.8% of 15.29/17.40) propped it up, and headed back to a high of 16.68 where the 200 HMA capped it. After closing mid range at 16.40, some more choppy sideways trade looks likely today. The charts are mixed, and while the 4 hour indicators point higher I still think that selling rallies in the 16.60/70 area is probably the plan, in looking for a retest of 16.10, and possibly lower towards 15.80 (76.4%) Keep stops on shorts just above 17.00. |
| OIL(WTI) | 51.68 | WTI had a relatively stable 50.06/51.90 range on Friday and so the points to watch remain pretty much unchanged. Back below 50.00 would break the rising trend support that we mentioned before, so as with last week, buying at the trend-line with a SL placed below it, at somewhere around 49.50 appears to be the plan. The daily indicators do still hint that we could be in for another squeeze to the topside, to where the immediate resistance is now seen at 52.05 and then at 53.00 (100 DMA) and at the current trend high at 54.15. If seen, this could prove pivotal. Either we would see another rejection for more downside action/choppy consolidation, or a break above it, in which case WTI could head on towards the Jan 2 high at 55.05, a break of which would hint at a run to the 23.6% of 107.44/42.01 at 57.20. If the resistance holds or if we break back below 50.00, then we could be in for another run back to 49.44 (38.2% of 42.01/54.10) and then to 48.00 (50%) and to 46.63(61.8%). Buying a break of the 100 DMA seems to be the idea. |
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