| INDICES/COMMODITIES | ||
| S&P Futures | 2101 | The choppy sideways price action continues, and on Friday the S+P corrected Thursdays decline by rallying back to 2100, where it finished at session highs. There is no change in outlook, and with the charts being rather mixed, for the time being a neutral stance is required. On the topside look for a run back to last week’s high at 2112, before potentially heading to 2119, the previous week’s all time high. Above this, we could then be in for an acceleration towards rising trend resistance at around 2140 although the daily/weekly charts so no real sign of this happening yet. The downside will again see bids in the 2070/80 area. Below 2070 would see bids at the rising trend support and the 100 DMA, both currently at 2062, come under pressure, a break of which would then head towards 2050 and lower |
| DJI | 17935 | As with the S+P, the DJI corrected Thursdays’ decline, closing at 17935 and looking as though the choppy price action is set to continue. The topside will continue to find resistance in the congestion area between 17950/18000, and above here, in the 18075/90 area. Beyond that would head towards 18120 above which, the all time high of 18265 would come into view but will take a while. The downside will again see support at 17900, 17850 and at 17770 (100 DMA), below which could then head to the rising trend support, now at 17700, beyond which, would open up last week’s low at 17688 and then the base of the recent range at around 17460. There are easier things to trade right now. |
| ASX SPI | 5833 | After an early dip to 5733 on Friday, the SPI recovered well, finishing at session highs at 5385. Given the mixed nature of the charts a neutral stance is required, but in the short term the 4 hourlies do point to further gains towards 5850 and possibly beyond, to 5880 and even 5900. Further out could see another approach on 6000, but as we said last week 6010, if seen, will not be easy to crack as it is 76.4% of the entire fall from 6880 (Dec 2007) to 3102 (Mar 2009), but above which would see the SPI head back towards 6102 where the market stalled before gapping lower at the beginning of 2008. The dailies and weeklies look less certain of any sustained move higher, and selling near term rallies may be the plan, in looking for another move back to 5800 and below, towards 5780 and to Friday’s 5733 low. Beyond this currently looks out of reach, but further losses would head towards 5700, below which the first major support is at the 12 Feb low at 5684. |
| GOLD | 1178 | Gold had a choppy session on Friday, gyrating between 1185 and new lows at 1170. This support has so far held, and more choppy trade, with a downside bias towards support at 1162 (76.4% of 1142/1224) looks possible, below which could see a steeper decline towards the trend low at 1142. The topside, once again, looks limited to 1185 and above, where 1190/1200 will provide resistance. Back above this would once again head towards the previous resistance at 1211 (100 DMA) a break of which would allow a run towards the 6 April 1224 high and then to the 200 DMA at 1230, but looks a long way off. The price action is very data-dependent and we could well hang around here until Friday’s US jobs data, but overall I still prefer the plan of trading from the short side and selling into strength |
| SILVER | 16.13 | Silver finished Friday unchanged, after a choppy session of trade between 15.91/16.27 The neutral stance remains intact although I do still prefer the idea of selling into strength but while the daily charts are flat it seems that Silver is likely to endure more choppy trade near 16.00. Below 15.80 would head to 15.60 and possibly to 15.40. The topside will again see sellers at 16.45 (100 DMA) and at the descending trend resistance at 16.90. Keep stops on shorts above the 200 DMA, now at 17.20 |
| OIL(WTI) | 59.17 | WTI made a minor double top at 59.81 on Friday, before falling sharply to a 58.29 low and then recovering to close at 59.20 as another 27 US oil rigs went offline, taking the count to 905 from 932 the previous week. There is no change in the outlook and I suspect that eventually the market will want to take a look at what lies at 60.00, beyond which would open up a run towards 61.36 (weekly Kijun) and to 62.00, with little other resistance to be seen in between. The downside will again find support at 58.50/30 and below, at 57.75, where the daily Tenkan and the rising trend support currently lies. Below here would bring about a deeper drop, perhaps towards 55.00 but at this stage seems unlikely. |
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