From the FXWW Chatroom – Main focus this week is on US data with NFPs on Friday and we also have ‘super Thursday’ with the BOE’s interest rate decision, minutes and inflation report all released on the same day. Our strongest convictions remains in EURUSD lower into the Fed and we also like fading AUDUSD on spikes should the RBA stay on hold. We also favour NZDUSD and EURGBP lower. Data ahead: Euro Area, UK and US Manufacturing PMIs.
{EU} EURUSD Lower => We saw the pair trading higher after a less dovish Draghi this weekend and month end Euro demand. Leading into the Fed we see the pair lower and believe the market to be under positioned with RM supply yet to come into play. The key levels for the session are 1.1085 as the resistance with 1.1120 above and 1.0897 (post Fed low) as the support.
{JN} USDJPY Neutral => Technical levels for the sessions: resistance at 121.50 (psychological level) and support at 120.00/119.62.
{AU} AUDUSD Lower => Data continues to suggest that the house price momentum is slowing. Though the hike in domestic lending rates would allow the RBA to act we believe the RBA to delay taking action for a month: we hence like fading a spike on an unchanged decision. Resistance at 0.7147 (55dma) with 0. 7180/90 the real pivot above. The support is now at 0.7069 (last week’s low).
{NZ} NZDUSD Lower => We now see the pair lower although less so than AUDUSD. Tomorrow’s dairy auction is likely to guide us short term. Support is at 0.6623 (post-RBNZ’s low); resistance is now at 0.6813 (last week’s high).
{CA} USDCAD Neutral => We remain neutral on the pair with 1.2998 (100dma) as the support level and 1.3198 (pre oil rally high) as the resistance.
{GB} GBPUSD Neutral => Month end demand for GBP saw cable trade as high as 1.5468 despite the selloff in short sterling stalling. Big week ahead for GBP with the BoE this Thursday. We stay neutral on GBPUSD yet favour EURGBP lower.
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