GBPUSD –The retail forex trading crowd remains modestly long the British Pound versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of herd sentiment gives us a contrarian bearish trading bias. It’s important to note that sentiment has actually moderated since last week; long positions are flat while short positions are up by 8 percent. Yet we would need to see a more sustained shift in sentiment to call for a meaningful reversal.
FXCM: EURUSD – Continued Euro tumbles have been met with aggressive retail FX crowd buying, and our trader sample shows that traders are close to flipping to net-long the EUR/USD for the first time since March. We typically use retail positioning as a contrarian indicator to price action; crowds remain net-short and as such we might call for Euro gains. Yet the severity with which sentiment has flipped warns that the Euro may continue lower.