I’m still on the move here in Lisbon and so this is just a brief update on a few FX pairs but, with BoE interest rates on the calendar this week, I’m wondering if the GBP/USD might be the pair to watch.
Gold weekly: closed with an indecision-style ‘Spinning Top’ candle and just under the $1,300 level. This bearish weekly candle close also has the appearance of a bearish-reversal ‘Evening Star’ though so watch for any bearish follow through. The $1,300 resistance held on Gold as the US$ wavered near 92.50 support. Any continued bounce with the US$ would likely keep pressure on the metal.
EUR/USD: this pair also closed the week with a bearish-reversal style candle, a Shooting Star. However, the monthly and weekly charts show that this candle had formed under a triangle trend line as well as under 1.15 resistance and so, from a technical view at least, the EUR/USD could simply be consolidating before a bullish attempt on this trend line & the 1.15 level.
There isn’t any first-tier Economic data for the EUR next week but there is a bunch a bunch of second tier data. There is CNY Trade Balance to be released over the w/e that may shape risk appetite to start the week though and this could impact the EUR/USD.
FWIW: buying and selling momentum remains low on the 4hr chart.
GBP/USD: this may be the pair to watch given there is the BoE Rate decision next week to impact price action.
The monthly chart shows price conforming to a bullish descending wedge set within a larger symmetrical triangle, albeit with the bottom triangle trend line already broken though.
The weekly chart shows this wedge pattern still in place and price is struggling to get up past the previous S/R level of 1.46.
The daily chart shows price action as being a bit bullish over the last couple of weeks with higher Highs and higher Lows though so traders need to watch for a break and hold above 1.46 OR for a break of this trend line to the low side.
The 4hr chart shows another bullish pattern with a bullish-reversal descending wedge forming up under the 1.46 level.
Thus, IMHO, the levels to watch with this week’s BoE data are:
- Bullish levels: watch for any bullish breakout above the 4hr chart’s wedge trend line, then the 1.46 level and, after that, the weekly charts wedge trend line.
- Bearish levels: watch for any breakdown from the 4hr chart’s wedge trend line, then the 4hr chart’s 50% and 60% fib levels and, after that, the 1.40 level.
NZD/USD: this is a tricky one as the pattern of higher Highs has been broken but not the pattern of higher Lows as a support trend line is still in place. However, this lower support trend line, seen on the daily chart, will be the region to watch in coming sessions.
EUR/AUD: the 1.55 level is back in focus here as price has recently tested and rejected this region. Watch for any make or break of this key S/R level in coming sessions:
E/A monthly:
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