FX: plenty of warning signals: TC

There are plenty of warning signals across currency pairs at the moment suggesting caution is needed with trying to pick a trend. Thursday’s European Bank Holiday and Monday’s looming US Memorial Day and GBP Bank holidays may also be contributing to this but there is also the specter of Summer ranging markets ahead of us.

The first warning signal, as I see it, is that the US$ index is now forming an indecision weekly Doji candle under the break of major support; it could go either way from here which is playing a bit of havoc with USD-based pairs. Second, is the number of consolidation patterns seen across the 4hr charts of many FX pairs and, third, is that momentum is declining on most 4hr FX charts. I would not be pushing for trades at this time but exercising patience and waiting for the breakouts to evolve, as they eventually will.

USDX weekly: The bottom of the Cloud is providing support here but watch for any make or break. I’d previously mentioned a test of the broken support could evolve so watch for that possibility too. Watch today with USD Core Durable Goods and Prelim GDP as well as G7 meetings.

Trend line breakout trades: only one 4hr chart breakout triggered yesterday:

USD/CNH: this breakout triggered during the Asian session and gave a decent move for 280 pips. Note the TC signal on the 15 min chart too::

USD/CNH 4hr:

USD/CNH 15 min:

Special Comment section:

Oil: has pulled back with OPEC so watch for any 4hr 61.8% fib support. Note the ok signal that triggered on the 15 min chart:

Oil 4hr:

Oil 15 min: a STOP of 80 pips is high but the risk/reward worked out ok for this particular move

GBP/USD: this is ranging within a wedge on the 4hr chart but note the 15 min chart:

GBP/USD 4hr: ranging under 1.30:

GBP/USD 15 min: taking TC signals off the 15 min chart WITHIN the wedge can offer some scalping opportunity but this chart shows that the signals that trigger close to a trend line are less profitable. I want all the TC Trial participants to note this. The better trades come with a new signal that forms with a trend line breakout so it’s best to see BOTH evolve before trading, IMHO that is!

Other Forex: note all the consolidation patterns and declining or absent momentum! With the holidays this week and next Monday these patterns may be with us for a bit longer. Patience! One benefit of declining momentum though is that it’s much easier to see an increase when the ADX breaks back up above the 20 level; there’s always a bright side! Keep an eye out today for USD Core Durable Goods and Prelim GDP as well as the G7 meetings.

EUR/USD 4hr: note the lack of momentum here!