FX Flows
Usd advanced in slow manner post-Toronto close – one FX newswire said Jon Hilsenrath WSJ article, which was published earlier at 2.15pm NY has gained some traction in early Asia, leading to Usd buying. In Hilsenrath’s report, he said Fed officials are on track to raise rates this year.
Tokyo banks were buyers of UsdJpy as they walked in – being Goto-bi Day and given positive Nikkei. Demand was strong that forced Macro names to chew through offers at 117.90-118.00 and drove Usd up into 118-teens. Well, last Thurs was SNB, Danmark Nationalbank did it last night. Will BOJ do anything ahead of ECB? Apparently that is what some people are thinking this morning. Japanese demand continued with dollar rising to 118.32.
Early release of Chinese Q4 GDP on China Business News saw Aussie popping from 0.8178 to 0.8207. AudUsd traded to 0.8214 then ran out of steam as demand for Usd returned. Aussie reversed to 0.8190 and forced some to bailout longs. I am told more stops under 0.8145.
Euro returned to 1.15-handle and reports of clusters of offers atop 1.1640-60.
UsdCad buy orders are reported below 1.1935; like the UsdJpy, the UsdCad traded higher. Contrast to the downside, offers are scarce.
SWISS FINMIN EXPECTS THE EXCHANGE RATE TO SETTLE DOWN AT AROUND 1.10 PER EURO
eurchf sharply unchanged…
Citi: G10 Flows: Frozen
Above average turnover in the antipodeans can’t hide the fact that overall turnover is low in G10 FX. We have seen reasonable net USD selling, despite the evident dollar demand. This has emerged over the last 90-minutes or so.
– EURUSD: Turnover below average; bias 51% in favor of buying
– USDJPY: Turnover below average; bias 53% in favor of selling
– EURJPY: Turnover very low; large bias in favor of selling
– GBPUSD: Turnover low; bias 53% in favor of selling
– EURGBP: Turnover low; bias in favor of selling
– AUDUSD: Turnover above average; bias 51% in favor of buying
– NZDUSD: Turnover above average; bias 58% in favor of buying
– USDCAD: Turnover low; bias 51% in favor of buying
– USDCHF: Turnover average; clear bias in favor of selling
– GS G10 FX – LONDON SPOT TRADER VIEWS
POSITIONING => The current market is giving us a hard time to keep our core positions so we have lightened our positioning in EURUSD, but maintain our faith into USD vs GBP and CAD.
{EU} Reduced Short EURUSD via Option => We cut our short cash positioned yesterday but look to reengage at 1.1630/50 as the risk reward looks decent ahead of ECB (with SL at 1.1750). We also reduced our downside option exposure.
{GB} Small Short GBPUSD => Given data mix this week (employment data tomorrow + Retail Sales on Friday), we believe risk reward remains for a lower pound. Levels: support at 1.5034 (cycle’s low), with resistance above at 1.5185.
{CA} Long USDCAD via Cash and Option => Ahead of BoC and CAD CPI, we still believe there is a scope for a move higher. Levels : short term support at 1.1935 (o/n lows) while the next resistance level above is 1.2047 (Friday’s high). EURCHF: Nothing to report