FX Flows

From the FXWW Chatroom: Usd strengthen across the board – UsdJpy climbed into the 109.40’s as BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke in New York. Speaking at Columbia University, Kuroda said use of QQE and NIR as long as necessary and that encouraged UsdJpy buyers.

UsdJpy move up was orderly. Good volume witnessed above 109.40 especially in the fifties. Buyers were mostly non-Japanese. I heard there are stops as well near 109.60 but definitely offers thicken towards 110.00. UsdJpy then backed away from 109.50; with AudNzd rising, we saw downside stops in NzdJpy near 74.85-90 taken out.

Market was expecting a good Aussie jobs report but didn’t know it was that good. March saw jobs increased 26,100, big jump in the part time employment. Impact of those numbers saw AudNzd up from 1.1080 up to 1.1144. Initially, we encountered good offers at 1.1125 but hearsay, macro names scooped the cross. AudUsd jumped but looks like better buyers of Usd capped Aussie at 0.7665.

Usd strength and weak oil sent UsdCad towards 1.2877. System funds chewed offers surrounding 1.2850. We should see next resistance near 1.2900. Large option strike at 1.2800 rolls off today NY cut, worth more than $1.32bn.

Euro – you really hate to love it! Our trader Jon said the break of 1.1350 is critical and now, prop and tech accounts will be looking to sell especially near 1.1300, with stops above 1.1355. Next support seen near 1.1220 but keep an eye on the EurAud. 1.4700-20 should offer some support and break of 1.4665 could be ugly.

Not sure why spot Gold fell from 1240 to 1229.2 – could have been a stop loss trigger but Chinese were better buyers when Shanghai opened. Trendline comes in at 1231.00 and 50-Day MA at 1232.80.

(CIBC)
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