FX: fairly calm so far this week, all things considered

The risk-off shift seen across stock markets hasn’t been as pronounced on FX markets but whether this bit of divergence is significant is not yet clear. It could just be the proverbial ‘calm before the storm’ which is why I keep watching major S/R level across the currency pairs for guidance. Gold is slightly higher this week but still below Friday’s Brexit peak and the VIX, rather surprisingly for me at least, has traded lower to start the week. We have the end of month and end of half year to factor in to the next couple of trading days so watch for even more choppiness as June comes to a close on Thursday. A number of FX pairs continue trading near major S/R levels so watch to see where they close, with respect to these levels, after Thursday’s end of month candle forms.

USDX daily: this has rallied up over the 95.50 and cleared the recent trading channel. The big question now is: will it head to the 100 level?

EURX daily: this index isn’t capitulating though as some may have expected it would, well not for the time being at least.

S&P500 weekly: this has fallen but the 2,000 is acting as support for now. Any break and hold of this 2,000 level would bring the 1,900 level into focus and, after that, the monthly support trend line:

Gold 4hr: This hasn’t gone too far since Friday and so is another signal that fear is not totally rampant; just yet at least.

Oil weekly: I’m still watching for a test of the $40 level:

VIX daily: lower on Monday and Tuesday. Go figure!

EUR/USD daily: yes this fell after Brexit BUT a technical person would suggest that the fall so far, to the 61.8% fib of the recent swing high move, is nothing out of the ordinary. However, any break and hold below this 61.8% fib would have me looking for a test of the 1.045 S/R level:

EUR/JPY daily: this stalled yesterday. Watch to see where it closes after Thursday and whether it can scrape back above the key 115 level.

AUD/USD daily: this pair fell yesterday and may be further impacted by the Australian Federal Election set down for this Saturday. Note it is below 0.74 BUT watch to see where it closes after Thursday.

AUD/JPY daily: watch to see whether this closes above or below 75 after Thursday:

GBP/USD daily: any monthly close below 1.35 would have me looking for a test of this level to then SHORT.

NZD/USD daily: holding above the key 0.70 level for now:

USD/JPY: I’ve been emphasising the importance of the 101.5 level for some time now and the 4hr chart shows price bouncing around above this level. Watch for any make or break of this level with Thursday’s monthly candle close: