The US$ and EUR indices are both rather quiet in the lead up to next week’s FOMC but some FX cross pairs and the GBP/USD have offered decent trading so far this week. US stocks have bounced after resuming the long w/e and following a bad week BUT don’t get too excited yet as the DJIA and S&P500 are still below key resistance levels.
USDX weekly: still range bound but a bit lower to start the week:
EURX weekly: also still range bound but a tad higher so far this week:
US Stocks: the major indices have closed higher with relief that Chinese markets seem to have opened steadier for the week. However, whilst the NASDAQ is back above 4,800, the DJIA is still below 17,000 and the S&P500 below 2,000 resistance:
Forex: there is GBP Manufacturing Production and CAD interest rate data tonight and RBNZ interest rate data early tomorrow morning.
E/U 4hr: doing little but, given the US$ and EUR indices, this isn’t too surprising:
E/U weekly: it’s worth keeping this range-bound pattern in mind here:
EUR/JPY: This pair still looks like it could be on target to test the 136.50 area. I have been writing and tweeting as much about this pair this week. The 134 level has been broken and it seems to have held an overnight test. Any bullish continuation from here would keep a test of the congested 136/136.50 region open as a possibility. This is the region of the previously broken trend line, monthly pivot, 4hr 200 EMA and 61.8% fib of the recent swing low move:
A/U 4hr: trying to bounce and has scraped back above the 0.70 level but it is still below the 4hr Cloud:
GBP/USD 4hr: this is another pair that I tweeted about this week. Whilst looking like it could dip to test 1.50 I noted that any bounce could head to test the congested 1.55 region. We’re not there yet but it is looking more likely at the moment. Keep an eye on tonight’s GBP Manufacturing Production data to see what impact this has on price action:
Kiwi weekly: I’ll be watching this tomorrow with the RBNZ interest rate decision. At the moment this is looking like it is testing the broken trend line before embarking on the Bear Flag and any interest rate cut announced tomorrow could help to kick start this move. It is a ‘watch this space’ one for sure:
U/J 4hr: no momentum here at the moment but not too surprising given the wait for FOMC. Keep the monthly chart in mind here too:
GBP/JPY 4hr: this is another one I have been writing about this week. The 184 level is a huge one for this pair and details about this can be found through this link. Price action has moved back above this level and looks to have tested and held it thus far. Bullish continuation might support a move up to test the congested 188/189 region as this is the area near the 61.8% fib, monthly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA. Keep the monthly chart in mind here too as any sustained hold above 184 and then 189 might suggest a test of the monthly’s 61.8% fib near 200:
Loonie 4hr: reacting a bit to the weaker US$ and hold with Oil price. Watch for any Flag breakout but continued choppiness around the 1.30 level is expected here, for me at least! There is the BoC Interest Rate decision released tonight to watch out for here:
GBP/NZD: this continues to chop around under a major monthly trend line. It is still holding above a daily support trend line though too and so it getting quite squeezed. Watch for any breakout following tonight’s GBP Manufacturing Production data and tomorrow’s RBNZ Interest Rate announcement:
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