FX Charts weekly outlook : EURGBP EURJPY, EURAUD, GBPAUD

EURGBP: 0.7385 The cross finished the week unchanged, just below 0.7400 after recovering from a new trend low at 0.7340, and more choppy trade within this vicinity may lie in store in the coming sessions. As with last week, while the overall trend remains lower, as evidenced by the weekly charts, the dailies are oversold and appear to be searching for a recovery to higher levels. If last week’s 0.7443 high can be overcome then further gains towards 0.7500 which I think should cap it, although we could see a return to 0.7592 (3 Feb high) and even to the 0.7640 area if a positive agreement between Greece and the EU can be arranged. If so I would be looking to sell it, looking for an eventual continuation of the longer term downtrend.On the downside, if the downtrend does continue from here, look for a return to 0.7370, below which the 200 Month MA at 0.7355. If seen, the 200 MMA should again act as very strong support ahead of last week’s spike low to 0.7340, but below here would suggest another leg lower towards the equally strong support at the major Fibo level at 0.7250 (61.8% of 0.5680/0.9802) although it is too early to think of this.

In line with the choppy action elsewhere, the crosses have largely consolidated over the last week, with EurJpy being no exception, finishing pretty much unchanged over the course of the week, right on the 100/200 HMA’s after a Monday/Friday range of 133.55/136.22.Further choppy action, with a neutral bias, may continue. I would not be overly involved right here and it would take a move to above the 100 week MA at 136.70 to bring any enthusiasm for a more directional move towards Fibo resistance at 137.57 (38.2% of 149.77/130.15) where I think it may be a sell opportunity, with at tight stop placed at around 138.10.

On the downside, the charts are rather messy and it could be that 134/135 may continue to hold it in the short term. Below 134 would open the way to the 9 Feb low at 133.67 and then  to last week’s brief visit to 133.22. Below here would hint at a further decline towards the 4 Feb low at 132.54..

GBPAUD: 1.9625 .The cross was choppy last week, sticking roughly to the range that we suspected it might in the previous week’s outlook,  but closing towards the lower end of the  weeks 1.9570/1.9910 range. While the weekly charts look positive, the dailies  are turning lower after having become overbought, and 1.9570 could well come under renewed pressure, below which, there is not too much to hold the cross until the Feb. 10 low at 1.9458, although that seems some way off.On the topside, 1.9700/50 will provide minor resistance, ahead of 1.9900. I am doubtful of heading back above 2.0000 in the near term, although if wrong, a break of the current trend high at 2.0028 would then head towards the more distant, August 09 high at 2.0266. More choppy corrective trade with a mild downside bias seems to be in store.

 

EURAUD: 1.4525. The cross was choppy again last week but finished a bit lower after sticking to parameters of 1.4385/1.4728, closing pretty much in the middle of the range. Given that the indicators are giving little assistance in either direction it could again be volatile this week but with little bias either way. The 50% pivot of the fall from 1.5330/1.4194 is at 1.4645, while the 200 HMA currently sits at 1.4620, so this area could again act as a pivot. Back above here would see a run back towards  last week’s high at 1.4728 and then on to the previous weeks high at 1.4805 and then on towards the previous high at 1.4893.On the downside, below 1.4420, where the 100 WMA provides strong support, would see a return to last weeks 1.4385 low and then on towards 1.4250 and possibly to 1.4000 although this seems unlikely for a while. Look for more in the 1.4400/1.4800 for now..

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