FX Charts Outlook for: EURJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, EURAUD, GBPAUD, EURGBP.

EURJPY: 127.50. The cross looks sick again and has closed back towards the 126.90 low seen in March. The weekly/monthly indicators suggest that there is plenty more downside ahead, and if we do push immediately lower the first target, below 126.90 would be at  the Fibo support at 126.30 (76.4% of 119.10/149.78), a break of which opens up 124.95 where a double bottom formed in Apr/June 2013. Under there, don’t stand in the way as there is nothing to hold it until the 200 Week MA at 122.50.On the topside, the 200 Month MA is at 108.00 and this could continue to act as a pivot, although further rallies could take us back towards minor resistances at 128.50 and 129.00. Right now 130.00 looks a long way off, and if seen would, I think, be a sell opportunity but with a SL placed above the 18 March spike high to 131.71, or for the more conservative trader probably just above 130.50..

…

GBPJPY: 175.80. The cross looks in dire straits to me after having broken down below the 4 year rising trend support line, and with the weekly/monthly indicators both pointing south it could be under further pressure as we head towards the UK election. The cross has closed right on the 200 Month MA, and so this may well contain it and act as a magnate in the days ahead but  the momentum is  heading lower, and on a break of 175.00, the first major support is not seen until the Fibo support at 172.60 (23.6% of 116.83/189.68).The topside will see resistance at around 176.50, where it may be worth selling it, although it could retrace to the previous rising trend support/200 DMA at 178.30, where I will definitely be looking to sell, wit a SL placed above 179.00..

…

NZDJPY: 90.53. The cross finally reached the upside target of 91.40 on Friday, allowing us to get short, and it was even kind enough to put in a key day reversal by closing at 90.53, right on the support seen at the 100 DMA. From here the cross may need to consolidate for a while, but we are looking for an eventual resumption of the downtrend towards the rising trend support at 89.50 and possibly to the 200 DMA at 88.85.Stops on shorts should be left at 91.05, as above here could see another run to last Friday’s high at 91.51, which if taken out would suggest a larger rally, towards 91.85 and higher, towards 92.30. For now  the preference remains to play it from the short side but returns to a neutral bias back above 91.00..

EURAUD: 1.3800. The Aud$ related crosses are confusing and are holding up extremely (in Aud$ terms) well given the outlook for the currency (Aud). EurAud gave up about 4.3% last week, which I would never have picked so just as well had nothing in it!  The 4 hourly charts are now at oversold extremes so a bounce towards 1.400 is possible, although a break below the 13 Mar low at 1.3727 could see a quick run to the 200 WMA at 1.3650 and even to the base of the long term channel at around 1.3500.The topside looks well capped for now at 1.4000, but a break of which could see a run back towards 1.4100. Doubtful in the short term. Right now there are easier things to look at.

The same applies to GBPAUD, which last week fell sharply from 1.9645 to 1.9033, finishing on its low and looking as though a break of 1.9000 is imminent, which could take the cross back to 1.8826, the low of 2 weeks ago. The ranges are wide and very volatile and for the time being I would stand aside. The channel, as seen on the daily chart has parameters at 1.8700/1.9600 so trade those levels perhaps, but in the middle leave it alone and let the market do the work.

…

---

EURGBP: 0.7248