FX Charts Outlook for EURJPY, EURAUD, EURGBP, GBPAUD by FX Charts

EURJPY: 135.80. The cross did much as we though t last week as it continued to head sharply lower from the weeks opening levels at around 140.00 and even took out our  medium term target at 135.80 (100 WMA) in reaching a weekly low of 134.69 before bounding to close at the 135.80 level. The move lower has now seen a 10% decline since mid December and some consolidation may be in order, but having said that, both the daily and weekly charts remain negative in their outlook and another test of last week’s lows would not surprise. Beyond here 134.13 should be strong support being the 12 Oct low as well as the 50% pivot of 119.10/149.77; although a break lower could see an acceleration towards the 61.8% Fibo support at 130.70, with not too much too hold it up in between.The topside will see initial sellers at 136.15, where the 100 WMA now lies, a break of which could head back to a previous Fibo support level-now-turned- resistance at 136.55 and the base of the weekly cloud at 136.75 ahead of 137.00 and the 100 HMA, currently at 137.60. With the 4 hour charts recovering from being oversold, we could be in for a bit of a short squeeze early in the week, so selling rallies towards 137.00 or even 138.00 at a stretch, with a SL just above the previous major rising trend support, currently at 138. 75 may be a plan. Above 139.00 sees the cross back above the weekly cloud top, in which case all  bets to the short side are off.

EURAUD: 1.4060. Having closed the previous week at 1.4425, the cross made it up to a high of 1.4611 before collapsing to finish just above the lows of 1.4003, with more losses looking to be in the pipeline. The dailies/weeklies/monthlies all look negative and rallies towards 1.4215 look to be sell opportunities for a test of the 18 month rising trend support at 1.3930, below which would open the chance of a fall to the Sept  low at 1.3800 and then the 200 Week MA at 1.3600. Some caution needs to be given to a Euro rally, which may well happen if the ECB does less in the form of QE than the market expects), in which case the points to watch would be at the 100 Week MA at 1.4355 and then at 1.4500, where the 100/200 DMA’s are converging at what is also 38.2% of 1.5246/1.4003. Any rally though may be short lived if the Greek election results in a left-wing victory, which would again send the Euro lower.

EURGBP: 0.7630. The cross headed sharply lower last week reaching 0.7595 as flows continued out of the Euro ahead of this week’s ECB meeting.  Further losses look very possible although some caution is warranted as we are now approaching some important support levels. On the weeklies (chart below) the cross has reached the base of the channel, which so far holds, while on the monthly charts (below), major rising trend support sits at 0.7540. If however this can be taken out, which will depend on the outcome of the ECB announcement on Thursday, there is not too much to stop the cross from heading towards the Nov 1993 low at 0.7451 (Sterling/EMS equivalent) and possibly to the 200 Month MA at 0.7355.. On the topside, bounces could take the cross back to 0.7700 and then to the break down level at around 0.7740 (Daily Tenkan), above which the 200 HMA sits at 0.7770. Any rallies still look like sell opportunities, but right here, above some decent support, caution is warranted and I would be a bit wary of selling it at current levels. Keep an eye out for next Sunday’s Greek election result, which could see further Euro losses next week in the event of a Syriza victory – which seems odds on.

GBPAUD: 1.8420. The cross was choppy last week, reaching a high of 1.8785, but actually ended up only 70 points below the previous weeks finish in finishing right on the 100 DMA and also holding above the immediate trend support at around 1.8365. The dailies and weeklies both look negative though, and thus a sustained break of the trend support could see a run towards 1.8260 (50% pivot of 1.7214/1.9307) and then to 1.8225 (200 DMA). Below that, the larger degree of Fibo support is to be seen at 1.8147 (23.6% of 1.4380/1.9307). Note that the cross is on the point of breaking down through the base of the (thin) daily cloud, and could end up taking a look at the top of the weekly cloud/kijun currently at around 1.8260, which lines up with the support level mentioned above.On the topside, the 100/200 HMA’s are seen at 1.8560/80 respectively and will provide the immediate resistance, and if we see it up here it may not be a bad sell opportunity with a SL placed above 1.8660, where descending trend resistance currently lies. If wrong, above here could see another run back to last week’s highs and more choppy consolidation to follow.