| INDICES/COMMODITIES | ||
| S&P Futures | 2071 | The S+P dived to 2065 after the US jobs figures, almost reaching the 2060 Fibo support at 2061 (38.2% of 1973/2116) before a dead-cat bounce into Friday’s close. The Fibo support could well come into play this week, a break of which would then open up 2053 (11 Feb low) and 2045 (50% pivot of 1973/2116).With the momentum indicators lining up to point lower, we could then be in for a steeper fall towards the 100 DMA at 2037 and the next degree of Fibo support at 2030 (23.6% of 1812/2116). The topside looks more problematic in the days ahead, with 2080 looking like strong resistance and I would be doubtful of regaining 2100 now (100/200 HMA’s) for a few day’s at least. The rising tide of calls for a Fed June rate hike will make the upside increasingly difficult, and we could be in for quite a ride to the downside, particularly if the bearish divergence on the dailies really starts to kick in. Watch this space! |
| DJI | 17866 | The DJI got hammered after Friday’s US data, closing just above the 17810 low and looking capable of taking this out in the days ahead. If so, the next support is at the Fibo level at 17765 (38.2% of 16960/18268), below which would open up the weekly Tenkan which is some way off at 17610. The topside currently looks restricted to 17950, although a break of 18000 would then suggest more consolidation and sideways choppy trade. Judging by the indicators, and the growing bearish divergence in the dailies, selling rallies is the way to go. |
| ASX SPI | 5825 | The SPI seem to have put in a medium term top last week at 5981 after having closed the week sharply lower, with the indicators suggesting that we could well be in for a decline towards 5800 and possibly 5775. The topside will see sellers now lining up at 5850, above which 5900 will again provide stiff headwinds. I don’t think we are likely to see it, but if wrong, a break of which could head on back towards the 5981 trend high. Selling rallies in the 5850/75 area seems to be the plan. |
| GOLD | 1167 | Gold finally did as we have been hoping for the last couple of weeks in breaking to the downside, unable to cope with the strength of the US$ and headed to 1164, with further losses looking likely to lie ahead. Having taken out the 2 Jan low at 1167, this is now acting as minor resistance, with further offers likely to line up at 1180 and 1190 ahead of 1200. If Gold does push lower, as I suspect it will, then look for a move towards the 1 Dec low at around 1142 and on to the 7 Nov low at 1131. Eventually I suspect we are in for move towards 1100 and lower towards important levels at 1085 (Mar 2010 low) and to 1044 (Jan 2010 low). |
| SILVER | 15.88 | Silver finally took out 16.00 and headed sharply lower to 15.77 before pulling up ahead of the Dec/Jan triple bottom at around 15.52. Further losses look likely though and a break of this support would then open up 15.00/10 and the spike low seen on 1 Dec at 14.41. Below that, the 200 Month MA sits at 13.80 and looks to be in focus, but which would be very strong support, if seen. On the topside, 16.00 will now act as resistance ahead of 16.20 and 16.40 (23.6% of 18.47/15.77) although I would be surprised to see it reach these levels in the near term. |
| OIL(WTI) | 49.70 | WTI had a choppy 51.20/48.86 session on Friday but was largely left out of the directional action brought about by the stronger US$. There is no change in view and I would continue to remain sidelined while this directionless, choppy action continues, although if the dollar continues to rise, then WTI will find it increasingly difficult to maintain its current levels. Now back below 50.00, I think the points to watch over the next few days, will be in the 48.85/70 area and possibly to 47.75 (last Thursday low), below which could head to the 5 Feb low at 47.35, 46.64 (2 Feb low), 44.29 (1 Feb low) and 43.56 (trend low). The topside will see sellers at 50.00/50 and at 51.00. More will arrive in the 52.00/50 area, above which would head back towards 52.70/53.00. We are unlikely to head above here today but beyond that, the points to watch are at last Wednesday’s 53.38 high and then at last Monday’s 53.95 high, above which is the double top that has formed at 54.15 and then 55.08 (2 Jan high. There are better things to trade right now. |
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