Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 5 March 18: FXRenew

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will bestalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

• Wait DXY.  – MT is sideways normal. After taking out the 90.50 level we had been watching, a bearish engulfing day formed,indicative that we will remain range-bound for the moment. The two key drivers of the USD are President Trumps Tariffs on steel and aluminium imports which are sparking fears of a trade war (which historically has been bad or the USD). On the other hand the Federal Reserve is by far the most hawkish central bank and it looks like rates will be hiked 3 or 4 times this year. Wait for now.

• Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. The tone of Brexit negotiations are less conciliatory than they have been in recent times and this continues to pressure the GBP despite the chance of another rate hike soon. Wait for now.

• Sell USD/JPY.  Trend – MT is bear normal. The bear MT continues on the back or risk-off in stocks, concerns over Trump’s Tariffs and importantly continued hawkish speak from the BOJ. There was talk this week that the BOJ could start to exit it’s extreme monetary policy measures in 2019. This talk was quickly walked back, but it was too late, and JPY strength is prevalent.

• Sell AUD/USD. Trend –  MT is bear normal. Data remains weak and the RBA is expected to maintain it’s neutral stance. Continue to sell.

• Wait EUR/USD. –  MT is sideways normal. After taking out the 1.22 figure we have a busted breakout and bullish engulfing candle indicative that we will remain range bound for now. I do favor shorts though but need the technical structure to line up. There is political risk over the weekend with the party vote that will determine if Merkal can form a coalition government or if perhaps there will be a new election. In Italy we have the election results expected on Monday with the populist and anti-euro 5-Star movement in the lead in the polls. If they do win the most votes though they will likely be beaten by a coalition of other parties. This is a major risk to the euro if somehow they do get into power.

• Wait NZD/USD. –  MT is sideways normal. The new RBNZ governor came out dovish in the last meeting and data has not been great. We remain range bound but we can expect the pair to remain under pressure, in particular with the ongoing volatility in stocks.

• Wait USD/CHF. – MT sideways normal. We had a busted attempt to break resistance at 94.50 after a bout of risk-off due to trade war concerns. We are now back in the range, wait for now.

• Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. The CAD is under pressure from Trump’s Tariffs as the US is the largest importer of it’s steel and aluminium. This coupled with NAFTA concerns and weakening oil  prices has driven us to just below key resistance at 1.2922. We need to watch for technical selling pressure here, but otherwise we can continue to buy.

• Wait EUR/GBP.  – MT is sideways normal. This comment remains on repeat: We remain firmly back within the range. Note we have developed a weekly sideways quiet MT, when these breakout, they tend to lead to a strong move. Wait for now and stalk the breakout.

Crosses

• Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
• Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell, but watch out for a bounce as we are stilling at a major key level.
• Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell GBP/JPY.  Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell CAD/JPY.  Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Wait GBP/NZD.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait EUR/NZD.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Sell AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Buy EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy GBP/CAD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy EUR/CAD. Trend  –  MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
• Sell CAD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Sell AUD/CHF.  Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.

Other Markets

• Wait USDSGD – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait USDCNH  – MT is sideways normal. Wait
• Wait Gold.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait Oil. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait S&P 500. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
• Wait DAX. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell Nikkei. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell T-Notes.  Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.