Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 3 July 17: FXRenew

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will bestalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

• Sell DXY Trend – MT is bear normal. The U.S. dollar is struggling on the back or a convergencein global monetary policy. Central banks around the globe (EUR, GBP, CAD) have suddenly shifted to a more hawkish stance. Meanwhile skepticism remains about if the Fed will hike rates later this year. Technically we are in a bear MT with major support to be found at 92.00. Watch for non-farm payrolls this week.

• Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The GBP continues to ignore political concerns and has bounced sharply on the back of Hawkish talk from the BOE. Technically we want to see a clean break of 1.3050 before we get a bull MT. There is likely to be some profit taking here given the speed of the bounce from 1.26 to 1.30.

• Buy USD/JPY. Breakout – MT is bull normal. The BOJ, in contrast to their counterparts around the globe, maintain a stubbornly dovish stance. This has seen the yen remain weak despite a bout of risk-off in the stock market. Look to buy here, but the bullish call would be cancelled if we get a bearish reversal pattern of the current level. Rising U.S. Bond yields should be supportive of the bullish outlook.

• Buy AUD/USD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. The Aussie is supported by decent China data, a more positive RBA and a jump in Iron Ore prices. The next target is the .7750 resistance

• Buy EUR/USD.  Trend –  MT is bull normal The ECB has begun prepping the markets for a less accomodative monetary policy stance. This combined with the recent slew of good data has sent the EUR on a tear. Continue to buy, looking for a move towards 1.1600.

• Buy NZD/USD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. We have a minor double top in place so buyers need to be aware. Despite that, the kiwi is holding it’s own on the back of a weaker USD. There is a dairy auction on Tuesday which could determine of the double top plays out or the trend resumes.

• Sell USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. USDCHF is moving down in lockstep with the EURUSD’s rise. We are close to major resistance so while we maintain our short stance establishing new positions here is not really worth it from a risk/reward perspective.

• Sell USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. CAD has been the benefit of a more hawkish central bank, good data and in the last week a bounce in oil. We are sitting just below key support at 1.30 and if this breaks expect a move to 1.25.

• Wait EUR/GBP.  – MT is sideways normal. We have reversal patterns forming at resistance, and this combined with the BOE’s new hawkish rhetoric is suggestive that we may head lower from here.

Crosses

• Buy EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy GBP/JPY.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
• Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait GBP/CAD. –  MT is bear normal. But we are turning sideways so wait.
• Wait EUR/CAD.  –  MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait GBP/CHF.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy CAD/CHF.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait. AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.

Other Markets

• Wait Gold. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
• Wait Oil. – MT is bear volatile. Bullish engulfing week off support suggests that there is more upside to come.
• Wait S&P 500. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Sell DAX. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Sell T-Notes Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.