I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will bestalking this week.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY Trend – MT is sideways normal. The dollar struggled last week on the back of concerns over tax reform, risk aversion and a little bit of geopolitical issues, with North Korea talking about building a submarine launched ballistic missile. There is also some political risk over Russian interference in the US election last year with a prosecutor subpoenaing documents from several Trump campaign members. Its thanks giving next week so price action may remain muted. Wait for now.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Prime Minister May has been under pressure from her own party in the past week with a number of MP signing a no confidence document. Despite this and ongoing Brexit talks, the GBP has ended higher for the week. Data has been OK, which has helped to support the pair. Technically, we are stuck in a persistent sideways MT so I prefer to wait for a break of the range before taking a position. Wait for now.
- Sell USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. We got the move below 113.00 that we targeted in last weeks report and are now in a bear MT. There has been ongoing risk aversion with a nervous stock market. US bond yields have been relatively range bound so sentiment is clearly focused on the risk aversion. Continue to sell.
- Sell AUD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Despite some better data out of Australia, market participants do not think it is going to change the neutral to dovish view of the RBA. Risk-off in stocks is keeping the currency pair under pressure and there is no help from commodities. There are concerns around a Chinese debt bubble. Continue to sell.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Good data continues to support the pair as does risk aversion. This is despite the divergent monetary policy between the US and the Euro-zone. We are in a sideways MT. I prefer to look for EUR opportunities on the crosses.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Data continues to be weak and ongoing concerns around the new government and risk aversion have seen the pair trade below the key .6800 level before recovering. We need to be careful of a reversal off this level so best to wait for the pair to close below .6800 before initiating shorts. A strong bounce of the level this coming week is a contrarian buying opportunity.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Risk aversion is pressuring the pair and we have moved into a sideways MT. Look for a move below .9850 to short.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways quiet. Less that impressive data and concerns that the BOC was too aggressive in hiking rates, along with ongoing NAFTA negotiation are keeping the currency range bound. Oil came off last week but rebounded strongly on Friday. Wait for now.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. The pair remains range bound. Wait for now.
Crosses
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Minor double top presents a selling opportunity if you are game.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Buy EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Sell AUD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Sell, but careful as we are at key support.
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Sell NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Sell AUD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
Other Markets
- USDSGD – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- USDCNY – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Buy Gold. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Wait Copper. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy Oil. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy S&P 500. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait DAX. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
View bank reports and fundamental analysis in the chatroom (members only)
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.