Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 2 Jul 18: FXRenew

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will bestalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

• Wait DXY.  – MT is sideways normal. The USD has continued to consolidate around the key 95 figure with a second reversal pattern forming last week. It’s a relatively strong technical signal so we can now look for some contrarian opportunities to sell USD. Not much change on the fundamental front with trade along with economic and monetary policy divergence the main themes .

• Wait GBP/USD. – MT is bear normal. We have moved into a bear MT but a large reversal day may push us back out of it early next week given the broad based reversals we have seen on USD and the rejection of the breakout on EURGBP. Support at 1.30 will still be a draw so this is not the highest probability reversal from a technical perspective. Brexit concerns still linger and there is a 70% chance of a rate hike priced in at the august BOE meeting.

• Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. We are pressing the top of the range immediate range at 111.00. Poor data (retail sales) along with an easing of risk-off concerns is supporting USDJPY. Note there are reversal patterns on a number of the crosses suggestive of more JPY weakness to come. Look to buy a break above 111.00.

• Buy AUD/USD. Contrarian –  MT is bear normal. A double bottom has formed off the key 0.7330 figure providing a contrarian buy opportunity. Fundamentally concerns still exist particularly around trade, but given the broad based USD reversal patterns and the strength of the double bottom, the likelihood of a reversal is decent.

• Wait EUR/USD. –  MT is sideways normal. A second reversal pattern off the key 1.16 level has formed with the easing of some political tensions in Germany with regards to immigration at last weeks EU summit. Further upside here looks likely.

• Sell NZD/USD.  Trend –  MT is bear normal. We have taken out the key 0.6780 level but no reversal pattern has formed. Kiwi is the weakest of the majors at this point in time (excepting perhaps JPY). Fundamentally,  the RBNZ has reinforced its dovish stance and this along with concerns around trade has seen the pair sell-off rapidly in the last week.

• Wait USD/CHF.  – MT sideways normal. The pressure remains on USDCHF after the key 1.00 level was taken out in early May. A rejection of the level again in the past week is indicative that we will see more downside with 0.98 the likely target.

• Wait  USD/CAD. – MT is bear volatile. A key reversal day after a strong run suggests some downside ahead. A double top formed last week which has pushed the pair out of the bull MT. This is on the back of hawkish BOC sentiment along with a sharply rising oil price.

• Wait EUR/GBP.  – MT is sideways quiet. We have rejected the recent high at 0.8850 with the formation of a bear doji. This is suggestive of GBP strength.

Crosses

• Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy AUD/JPY.  Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Busted breakout off the bottom of the range provides a buying opportunity.
• Buy NZD/JPY. Contrarian  – MT is bear normal. Double bottom in place. Contrarian buy.
• Buy GBP/JPY. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. Bullish reversal off the low. Look to buy.
• Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait CAD/JPY.   – MT is bear volatile. Wait.
• Wait CHF/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy AUD/NZD. Trend  – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is bull normal. Minor double top in place.
• Sell AUD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Wait GBP/CAD. –  MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
• Sell NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is bear normal. Minor double bottom in place.
• Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is bear volatile. Wait.
• Sell NZD/CHF. Trend  – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Wait AUD/CHF.  – MT is bear normal. Minor double bottom in place.

Other Markets

• Buy USDSGD.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy USDCNH. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Sell Gold. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Buy Oil. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait S&P 500. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Sell DAX. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
• Buy T-Notes. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.

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Economic calendar for the week ahead:

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.