Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 2 Apr 18: FXRenew

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

• Wait DXY.  – MT is sideways quiet. The dollar index remains in the sideways quiet MT. Trade fears have eased a little with President Trump’s tariffs perhaps seen as the opening gambit in trade negotiations with China. Tensions have eased with North Korea and things look to have settled down on that front. Both these developments are USD bullish. Data remains decent out of the US. Watch out for Non-farm payrolls in the coming week.

• Buy GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. We are just holding onto the bull MT. Data remains decent out of the UK and there is a strong chance of a May rate hike. Brexit tensions continue to ease. Wait for a resumption of the trend before getting long.

• Wait USD/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. USDJPY initially broke down on a sell-off in stocks, but sharply recovered along with stocks and we are now back in a sideways MT. We may be forming a reverse head and shoulders pattern with a break above 107.50 completing the pattern. I do like to buy above 107.50, but we need to watch out for ongoing volatility in stocks and risk-off flows.

• Sell AUD/USD. Trend –  MT is bear normal. The RBA meets this week and we can expect them to remain dovish. Data has not been great out of Australia and with trade fears and risk-off there is little chance of the RBA increasing their rate hike expectations. Continue to sell.

• Wait EUR/USD. –  MT is sideways quiet. The EUR remains range bound, perhaps caught between the conflicting drivers of a dovish ECB and a less hawkish than expected Federal reserve and trade war fear. Trade the break either way, though my preference is to sell through 1.2250.

• Wait NZD/USD. –  MT is sideways normal. The Kiwi remains under pressure with poor data and a dovish RBNZ. The RBNZ has had its mandate and decision making processes changed by the new Government. On top of that, there is a new RBNZ governor. But this should not result in much change to the interest rate outlook at this point in time. I prefer to sell through 0.7180

• Buy USD/CHF. Trend – MT bull normal. We remain in the bull MT, though we do have a minor double top potentially forming here. Risk-off/on is a key driver of CHF, so while I expect the bull MT to continue, we need to watch out for a continuation of the sell-off in stocks.

• Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. We have moved into a sideways MT around resistance turned support at 1.29. GDP numbers had a miss and concerns remain over NAFTA.On the plus side Oil prices have been rising. Wait for now

• Wait EUR/GBP.  – MT is sideways normal. We have failed to breakout of the weekly sideways MT and remain range bound for now. Wait.

Crosses

• Buy EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Buy NZD/JPY.  Reversal – MT is sideways normal. Contrarian buy.
• Wait GBP/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait CAD/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Sell CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Buy GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
• Sell AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Buy EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
• Wait GBP/CAD. –  MT is bull volatile. Wait.
• Wait EUR/CAD.  –  MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but careful as we are at resistance.
• Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait. 
• Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.

Other Markets

• Wait USDSGD – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Sell USDCNH  Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Wait Gold.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy Oil. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Sell S&P 500. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Wait DAX. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait Nikkei. – MT sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy T-Notes. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.