Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 17 July 17: FXRenew

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will bestalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

• Sell DXY Trend – MT is bear normal. This week we remain bearish the USD after Janet Yellen’s slightly dovish bent in her testimony to Congress, where she raised concerns around inflation. This coupled with continued skepticism around President Trumps ability to implement his growth policies (at the moment due to his Son meeting with a Russian during the election campaign) and poor data that puts water on the fire of rate hawks is pressuring the dollar. Continue to sell.

• Buy GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. We have broken out into a bull normal market type on the back of strong employment data, hawkish comments from BOE members, EURGBP selling, the weak USD and M&A activity. The correct approach is to buy, but watch for a reversal off these levels.

• Wait USD/JPY. – MT is bull volatile. We look to be turning into a sideways MT on the back of weakening US bond yields and lowered rate hike expectations. Note that the BOJ meets this week and will likely reiterate their highly accommodative stance. We are also clearly risk-on in stocks. These two factors should keep the yen relatively weak.

• Buy AUD/USD. Trend –  MT is bull fast. The AUD has broken out into both a daily and weekly bull MT, but technically caution needs to be had until we breach the 2016 high at .7835. The Aussie has been favored by traders given the rise in risk assets, USD weakness, recovering Iron Ore prices and good China data. This MT suits short-term traders.

• Buy EUR/USD.  Trend –  MT is bull normal. Some profit taking had set in ahead of this week’s ECB meeting, in particular on the EUR crosses. But the uptrend remains intact on the back of USD weakness and we are trading near highs.

• Wait NZD/USD. –  MT is sideways normal. After initially selling off early last week, the Kiwi has benefited from risk-on and the weak USD.

• Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. We have flipped into a sideways MT and remain near long-term support. If USD catches a bid then buying this pair could be a good option given the risk-on we are seeing.

• Sell USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The BOC hiked rates last week and upgraded their forecasts. This was more than the market expected and we saw the pair sell-off commensurately. Keep selling.

• Wait EUR/GBP.  – MT is sideways normal. We had a busted breakout of the key .8850 level and the formation of a bearish engulfing week. This is suggestive of a move back toward 0.8300. Look to sell below 0.8725. 

Crosses

• Buy EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy GBP/JPY.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait GBP/NZD.  – MT is sideways normal. Look to buy above 1.7960.
• Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
• Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Sell below 1.6540. 
• Wait AUD/CAD.  –  MT is bear volatile. Wait.
• Sell GBP/CAD. Trend –  MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell EUR/CAD.  Trend –  MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Buy GBP/CHF.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy CAD/CHF.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy AUD/CHF. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.

Other Markets

• Sell Gold. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Wait Oil. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Buy S&P 500. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Wait DAX. Trend – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Sell T-Notes Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.

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Economic calendar for the week ahead:

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.