I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will bestalking this week.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY. – MT is sideways normal. After taking out the 90.50 level we had been watching, a bearish engulfing day formed,indicative that we will remain range-bound for the moment. The main event last week was NFP. The numbers were decent though the USD sold off on the news against risk currencies. This is perhaps due more to easing of both trade war fears and tensions between the US and North Korea, with the two leaders preparing to meet. Importantly, NFP numbers were good enough for Federal Reserve to hike rates later this month.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Nothing two much new on the Brexit front and we remain range bound. Wait for now.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is bear volatile. There is a minor double bottom in place and the MT is turning sideways. With easing tension around trade war fears and North Korea, as well as the recovery in stocks, the pressures on USDJPY are easing. The market may now look to focus on US rate hikes. Wait for now.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The recovery in risk and stocks along with improving China data is supporting the AUD. We are now in a sideways MT. Wait.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. While we remain range bound, a dovish ECB meeting on last Thursday is pressuring the EUR. There are some opportunities to sell EUR on the crosses in particular.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The recovery in risk along with good China data is supporting the pair and we remain range bound. Wait.
- Buy USD/CHF. Trend – MT sideways normal. The recovery in risk along with a dovish ECB has seen the pair shift into a bull MT. Look to buy.
- Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Caution is required here as we have reversed off weekly resistance. There has been some easing of NAFTA concerns and risk-on is supporting the CAD. Buy, but wait for bullish momentum to resume.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. This comment remains on repeat: We remain firmly within the range after a rejection of the high. Note we have developed a weekly sideways quiet MT, when these breakout, they tend to lead to a strong move. Wait for now and stalk the breakout.
Crosses
- Buy EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell, but careful.
- Sell EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait or sell.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal.
- Buy AUD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but careful as we are selling off resistance.
- Sell EUR/CAD. – MT is bull normal. Contrarian sell off resistance.
- Buy NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is bear volatile. Wait.
- Buy NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy AUD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
Other Markets
- Wait USDSGD – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait USDCNH – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Wait Gold. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait Oil. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait S&P 500. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait DAX. – MT is sideways normal. Wait or contrarian buy.
- Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways normal. Wait or contrarian buy.
- Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
View bank reports and fundamental analysis in the chatroom (members only)
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.