As mentioned in my w/e write up there is no US$-sensitive high impact data this week other than the usual weekly Unemployment claims. So, apart from the big moves seen already with Gold and Silver, it could be a bit quiet now until possibly Thursday when there is an NZD Interest rate announcement, GBP Retail Sales data and I now also see a Greek Debt crisis vote to contend with. The US$ looks like it might try marching back up to the 100 level again but success there is not guaranteed and that slim hope, or at least thought, must be in the back of the minds of many currency traders.
USDX weekly: it does seem like a Bull Flag is underway here but there is strong resistance ahead at the 100 level. Any respect of this level would help to boost the likes of Gold, Silver, the E/U, A/U and Kiwi etc. However, any close and hold above 100 would be bearish for those entities.
EURX weekly: In Yin and Yang fashion this index is putting up a Bear Flag to the US$ Bull Flag. Traders need to watch for any break and close below the 94 previous low region:
Gold and Silver: both have been punished by the stronger US$ and reduced global tension surrounding the Greek debt crisis. See my earlier write up on Gold.
Silver monthly: still below $15 support:
Gold weekly: the weekly close below $1,145 was significant:
S&P500 daily: there has been a new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the S&P500 BUT this cross evolved below the Cloud and so is deemed a ‘weak’ signal. Worth noting though!
Forex: With little scheduled US$ news this week attention is drawn to today’s AUD Monetary Policy Minutes and GBP news by way of Bank Rate votes on Wed and Retail Sales on Thurs. Thursday also brings the NZD Interest Rate announcement.
TC Signal: there was a new signal yesterday on the U/J but it hasn’t ventured very far:
Other FX:
E/U: this still looks a possible 3,500 Bear Flag in the making. Watch for any close below the recent low near 1.045:
A/U: this also looks like a Bear Flag in progress since the hold below 0.755. The A/U seems to have found some support from 0.735 of late and so watch for any break of that level. Watch for any reaction to today’s Monetary Policy minutes and tomorrow’s CPI and RBA Steven’s speech:
Cable 4hr: there has not been any uptick with momentum so the triangle trend lines have been relaxed to cover recent price action. This will be one to watch with GBP data this week: Bank Rate Votes and Retail Sales. Strong Retail Sales could be enough to trigger a breakout here so watch for any trend line breakouts:
Kiwi 4hr: This is still channel trading and I’m not expecting too much activity here before Thursday’s Interest Rate announcement:
Loonie: this is still stalled under the key 1.30 level. A level to watch here for sure though if the US$ breaks the 100 level:
GBP/AUD: I would still expect a pull back here to test either the monthly 200 EMA or maybe even the 2.07 level:
GBP/NZD: this has retreated from the monthly bear trend line but may just be gathering steam before Thursday’s NZD interest rate announcement. Watch for any possible Bull Flag breakout, supported by momentum, after the rate announcement:
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