EURUSD: Euro spikes higher on CNBC story of Greece/EU bailout extension by FX Charts

A CNBC Report is suggesting that the EU and Greece have reached agreement on a bailout extension. There is no further news at this stage but the Euro has spiked quickly to 1.1340 on the back of the story.It has been another tight day for the EurUsd as it continues to bounce around either side of 1.1300, today seeing a 1.1279/1.1330 range. The overall tone remains heavy as concerns over what is going to happen to Greece weigh on sentiment and we may just be in for a slow choppy drift lower while the negotiations carry on. Today sees the German Inflation data for January and then later, the US Retail Sales so we they will provide some action and there is also an EU meeting, so watch for any statements emanating from that.

Technically there is currently little change from yesterday.

Today’s top has been 1.1330, above which there is plenty of resistance up to 1.1360 where the 100/200 HMA’s have crossed and could well provide a cap for the coming session. Above here, would see a return to 1.1400, beyond which would see the Euro test the downtrend resistance at 1.1415. A break of this could then see a run towards 1.1460 (minor), and beyond there, towards Friday’s high of 1.1485.  If we were to see a move to beyond 1.1500, which I doubt, at least in the next few days, then we would see a run towards last week’s peak at 1.1533. Above there would see further sellers at the nearby Fibo resistance at 1.1542 (76.4% of 1.1679/1.1097), which would set up a run up towards 1.1600 (daily Kijun) and on to 1.1655 (38.2% of 1.2569/1.1097). If seen, such a rally could be seen as a potential sell opportunity, with a SL left on all short positions to be left above the 21 Jan high of 1.1680.

The downside will again find minor support in the 1.1270/80 area, and which is closely backed up by the Fibo support at 1.1260 (61.8% of 1.1097/1.1533). Under there would see bids at 1.1220 and 1.1200, below which would see a run towards the trend lows (1.1097), although again, this is unlikely to occur today.

As we said before, below 1.1097, the next obvious target is at 1.1000, where many analysts had previously been looking for a 2015 low, although the next realistic technical level is not seen until the September 2003 low at 1.0759, beyond which we are going to zero-in, eventually, to the Fibo support at 1.0080 (76.4% of 0.8225//1.6037) and then on parity.

The short term indicators are giving us little assistance so a neutral stance is required. In the medium term selling into any short squeeze towards 1.15/1.16, should we see such a move, with a SL above 1.17 seems to be the way to go ahead of a resumption of the downtrend, possibly in March when the ECB commences its QE programme.

Economic data highlights will include:

German CPI, EU Industrial Production, US Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, EU Meeting.

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