EURUSD: Euro higher after firmer data. Now waiting on EU/US CPI’s and the FOMC outcome by Jim Langlands

The dollar came under some heavy pressure today, led by the steep fall in US$Jpy, but with the Euro assisted by the EZ data, where the German ZEW economic sentiment rose sharply to 34.9 (exp. 20.0) and the current situation gauge also improved to 10 (exp 5). EZ  ZEW economic sentiment rose strongly to 31.8 ( exp 19.8) .The German flash Mfg PMI also improved to 51.2 (exp 50.3), while the French number again disappointed at 47.9 (exp 48.6).Currently sitting close to 1.2500, after earlier seeing a sharp squeeze up to as high as 1.2569, the market will now look towards the EU CPI (exp 0.3%yy, -0.2% mm) and then to the US  CPI (exp -0.1%mm, +1.4%yy) for guidance, to be closely followed by the Fed and the FOMC result, which seems very finely balanced as to what the outcome will be. The main focus will be on the statement and whether the phrase “considerable time” will continue to be used as to how long rates are likely to stay on hold.

Technically, the Euro has broken above the descending trendline that we have recently discussed and has headed on towards the resistance at the pink descending trend resistance line, now at 1.2570. The dailies still point higher though, so if this can be overcome, then look for a run up to the 19 Nov high at 1.2490.   A break of 1.2500 would  trigger stops to potentially take the Euro on towards the 26 Nov high at 1.2531, above which, the first major Fibo resistance is not seen until we reach 1.2590 (23.6% of 1.3699/1.2246), with the greater Fibo level not seen until 1.2656 (23.6% of 1.3993/1.2246).

If the Fed turns out to be more hawkish than expected, then the dollar will come back into favour, with the Euro back under pressure, where the downside will see bids at minor rising trend support/100 HMA at 1.2450, a break of which would head to the 200 HMA at 1.2400. Below here would see a run towards minor Fibo support s at 1.2375 and 1.2325 ahead of 1.2300, below which would head back to the trend low at 1.2246 which in turn lies just ahead of the next major level at 1.2225 (200 Month MA) and will act as strong support.

If/when the 200 MMA is taken out, the Euro would then head towards  the major rising trend support (joining the 2005, 2010, 2012 lows) at around 1.2140, and then to 1.2100 which is the 50% pivot of the rally from the Euro Oct 2000 low to the July 2008 high and again, should also provide decent support. Under that, which would see the long term head/shoulder neckline being broken, we have the July 2012 low at 1.2041 and the June 2010 low 1.1876, which both come ahead of 1.1743, where the Euro was initially pegged to the dollar in January 1999.

Economic data highlights will include:

EU CPI, US CPI, Current Account, FOMC Meeting/Press Conference/Statement..

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