EURUSD: Euro consolidating, with more of the same likely today. Sell into strength by FX Charts

It has been another session of using 1.1300 as a pivot but with little directional bias, and in the event of no major data from either the EU or the US in the next 24 hours it would appear that we could well be in for more of the same today. It looks as though it will be geopolitics that dominate any action, with the next major economic events to watch out for being the US Retail Sales tomorrow and then the EU GDP on Friday.Technically there is no change and a fairly neutral stance is currently required for the EurUsd, although the dollar has been generally underpinned today by firmer U.S. Treasury yields which climbed a bit higher on continued expectations of a Fed rate hike this year.

Today’s top has been 1.1344, above which the 100/200 HMA’s are crossing at 1.1360 and could well provide a cap for the coming session. Above here, 1.1360/70 would see a return to 1.1400, beyond which would see the Euro test the downtrend resistance at 1.1415. A break of this could then see a run towards 1.1460 (minor), and beyond there, towards Friday’s high of 1.1485.  If we were to see a move to beyond 1.1500, which I doubt, at least in the next few days, then we would see a run towards last week’s peak at 1.1533. Above there would see further sellers at the nearby Fibo resistance at 1.1542 (76.4% of 1.1679/1.1097), which would set up a run up towards 1.1600 (daily Kijun) and on to 1.1655 (38.2% of 1.2569/1.1097). If seen, such a rally could be seen as a potential sell opportunity, with a SL left on all short positions to be left above the 21 Jan high of 1.1680.

The downside will again find minor support today at 1.1300 and then at the 1.1272 session low, which is closely backed up by the Fibo support at 1.1260 (61.8% of 1.1097/1.1533). Under there would see bids at 1.1220 and 1.1200, below which would see a run towards the trend lows (1.1097), although again, this is unlikely to occur today.

As we said before, below 1.1097, the next obvious target is at 1.1000, where many analysts had previously been looking for a 2015 low, although the next realistic technical level is not seen until the September 2003 low at 1.0759, beyond which we are going to zero-in, eventually, to the Fibo support at 1.0080 (76.4% of 0.8225//1.6037) and then on parity.

Don’t look for too much action today. I suspect 1.1260/1.1360 could cover it. In the medium term selling into any short squeeze towards 1.15/1.16 with a SL above 1.17 seems to be the way to go ahead of a resumption of the downtrend, possibly in March when the ECB commences its QE programme.

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