Asian equities continued to hold onto recent gains overnight, although doubts on the health of the Chinese economy have also encouraged profit taking. China kicks off its fifth plenum today (Oct 26-29) and all eyes are on the GDP growth target. Consensus is looking for an avg growth target of 6.5% from 2016-2020 but downside risks remain – hence the PBoC’s cut last week is deemed to have little impact.
Looking ahead, Germany’s IFO survey is out today with analysts looking for a small retracement on all measures. US new home sales are also due, but will have much less impact. Usually Monday mornings are a “wait & see” but given the shift from the ECB, and given the IFO this morning, I think today is an exception.
I continue to favour shorts in Euro vs. Usd and Nzd (being cautious however of not loading up too aggressively vs. USD as there is considerable uncertainty over this week’s FOMC statement).
Charts for today:
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