Easter week: By Mary McNamara

Last week: The US$ did not respond to FOMC as many would have expected and this turn of fate had the FX Cross-pairs in greater favour to start the week. There were some decent trend line breakout trades last week with more congestion patterns brewing for the week ahead, although, the looming Easter break might keep things a bit quiet. The recent US tariff-inspired Trade War has helped to boost Gold so it will definitely be one to monitor if this situation continues to fester.

Trend line breakouts and TC signals: there were a few trend line breakout trades last week and these were updated on my site here, here, here and here:

GBP/AUD: 280 pips and a 5′ chart TC signal for 6.5 R.
GBP/NZD: 280 pips.
GBP/USD: 100 pips.
EUR/USD: 40 pips and a TC signal for 2.5 R.
NZD/USD: a TC signal for 2.5 R.
EUR/AUD: a TC signal for 2 R.
Oil: 290 pips and a TC signal for 120 pips and 8 R and another for 160 pips and 4.5 R.
Gold: a TC signal for 240 pips and 16 R and a trend line breakout for 270 pips.

Next week:

FX Indices: The US$ index has printed a rather large bearish weekly candle and an update on both FX indices can be found through this link.
End of Quarter: next Friday is Good Friday and this marks the last trading day of the month and quarter although it is a public holiday in many countries. Trading volumes might be lower heading into this Easter holiday period.
JPY pairs: watch these pairs for any JPY strength to develop if the Trade War situation s continues.
Stocks: the major stock indices are experiencing some bearish activity but the monthly charts below put these moves into greater perspective. Support trend lines are still in play for the most so these moves can’t even be described as being that ugly just yet! Any break of the support trend line(s) would have me looking for a test of the 61.8% fibs. Now, that would be ugly!

: S&P500 monthly

: DJIA monthly

: NASDAQ monthly

: Russell-2000 monthly

FANG: FANG is an acronym that was coined by CNBC’s Mad Money host, Jim Cramer, and refers to the big four stocks of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. I reviewed these stocks on Friday given the recent stock weakness and this article can be found through the following link.
Gold: Gold is in greater focus given the recent trade war developments and the precious metal, and a selection of US and Aussie Gold stocks have been reviewed separately this week. This article can be found through this link.
TC Upgrade: Recall that I am upgrading my website so please be patient throughout this process in case access is impacted at all. My blog site started rather humbly as a method of distraction for me back in 2011 when I was undergoing chemotherapy. During that time it has evolved to be a more professional site where I post charts and detailed measured analysis on numerous trading instruments for free and on a very regular basis. Please keep this in mind when updates about website changes are released.

Calendar: There is US GDP data to monitor this week but keep track of the ongoing US-China trade-war situation as this is impacting currencies as well. Apart from that, it could be quiet given the approach of the Easter weekend.

Forex:

EUR/USD: Little has changed here with the EUR/USD despite last week’s FOMC rate hike.

The EUR/USD closed with a bullish weekly candle but remains range-bound within a triangle on the 4hr chart. As per my commentary over recent weeks, I see all of this as consolidation under the major 1.260 S/R level.

The 1.260 region remains a major S/R level for this pair as the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib is nearby and it also intersects with the monthly chart’s 10-year bear trend line. Thus, whilst STILL around 250 pips away, the 1.26 remains the major level to monitor in coming sessions.

Bullish targets: The first target on any triangle breakout would be 1.260 which is about 250 pips away. After that, the 1.40 S/R level would be in focus as this is near the monthly chart’s 61.8% fib. A move from 1.26 to 1.40 comprises about 1,400 pips and so is well worth stalking!

Bearish targets: Any pullback and break below the triangle support trend line would have me looking for a test of the key 1.20 level.

Watch the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines for any new breakout:

EUR/JPY: This pair chopped lower again last week and has closed below the major 130 S/R region and monthly 200 EMA. I had been looking for a relief rally here but all that has changed with the developing Trade War saga. I’ll be watching to see if the this situation develops further as I would expect this to lead to increased JPY strength and, thus, moves to the downside for this pair.

The weekly chart shows that the 61.8% fib is down near previous S/R of 120 and so that would be in focus for any developing weakness on this pair.

Bullish targets: Any bullish 4hr chart descending wedge breakout would keep the major 135 S/R level in focus as this is still up near the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib.

Bearish targets: Any bearish 4hr chart descending wedge breakout would have me looking to the 120 region as this is the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib level of the last swing high move.

Watch the 4hr chart descending wedge trend lines for any new breakout:

AUD/USD: The Aussie has been choppy around the major 0.77 although it closed just below this S/R level for the week and printed an indecision-style ‘Spinning Top’ candle, albeit a bearish coloured one.

Trade War talk has impacted here too and any bearish continuation below 0.77 would bring the 2.5 year support trend line into focus as the next major S/R level to watch. For now though, this support trend line remains intact and the weekly chart’s pattern of higher Highs and higherLows is still intact and there continues to be little momentum on both the weekly and monthly charts.

Bullish targets: Any bullish 4hr chart triangle breakout would bring the 0.78 level and, after that, the upper bear trend line into focus.

Bearish targets: Any bearish 4hr chart triangle breakout would bring the 2.5 year support trend line into focus as this is only about 80 pips away from current price.

Watch the 0.77 and the 4hr chart triangle for any new breakout:

AUD/JPY: This pair chopped lower last week and the stock sell offf would not have helped here. It is important to note that price action is currently 60 pips above a major S/R zone of the 80 level and this will be the region to watch in coming sessions for any new make or break.

Bullish targets: Any bullish 4hr chart wedge breakout would bring the 85 S/R level, followed by the 86 and 87 S/R levels, into focus.

Bearish targets: Any break and hold below the 80 level, near the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib level, would bring the monthly charts support trend line into focus and this intersects down near the weekly 78.6% fib near recent lows circa 76.

Watch the 4hr chart wedge trend lines for any new breakout:

NZD/USD: The Kiwi chopped around either side of the 0.72 level last week but managed to close above this S/R zone. The 0.72 remains the level to watch in the coming week for any new make or break activity.

Bullish targets: any bullish triangle breakout would bring the 0.74 S/R level back into focus.

Bearish targets: any bearish triangle breakout would bring the 0.72 into focus followed by 0.71 and other whole-number levels.

Watch for any new 4hr chart triangle breakout:

GBP/USD: The Cable broke back above the 1.40 level last week and continued to edge higher with the help of US$ weakness.

Bullish targets: Any hold above 1.40 would have me looking to the recent High near 1.4340. After that, the 1.50 region would come into greater focus as this is the 61.8% fib of the weekly chart’s longer-term swing low move. This is a move worth 1,000 pips so is worth stalking!

Bearish targets: Any 4hr chart trend line break would bring the 1.40 back into focus. After that, the daily chart shows a weekly support trend line in play but any break below this would have me looking down to the 1.25 level as this is the 61.8% fib of the last major swing high move (see daily chart).

Watch for any new 4hr chart trend line breakout:

USD/JPY: This pair edged lower last week as the trade war situation developed and it closed the week below the key 105 level, albeit only just, but also below a 22-month support trend line.

The weekly chart shows the 2016 Lows down near 99 and this would be the target for any continuation move should uncertainty continue with the US-China trade war situation. However, the whole-number and psychological 100 level is just before this region.

Bullish targets: any bullish wedge breakout would bring the monthly 200 EMA, then the weekly 200 EMA, near 109.50, followed by the key 110 S/R level, near the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib level, into focus.

Bearish targets: any hold below the whole-number 105 S/R level would bring the 100 level followed by the 2016 Low, near 99, into focus.

Watch for any wedge breakout;

GBP/JPY: The GBP/JPY continues consolidating in a triangle under some serious resistance from the 150 region.

Bullish targets: any bullish triangle breakout would bring the 150 S/R level, which is near the previously broken support trend line and monthly pivot, followed then by the weekly 200 EMA, into focus.

Bearish targets: any bearish triangle breakout would bring the 147, then the recent low near 145 into focus. After that, the 139 level would loom as this is near the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib region.

Watch for any 4hr chart triangle breakout:

GBP/AUD: I have been mentioning for weeks to watch this 1.80 level and last week price bolted up for 400 pips above this region!

Bullish targets: any bullish trend line breakout would have me looking to the 1.90 region as this is near the 50% fib on the weekly chart and is previous S/R.

Bearish targets: any bearish trend line breakout would have me looking for a test of the 1.80 region as this is near the 4hr chart’s 50% fib region.

Watch the new triangle trend lines for any breakout:

GBP/NZD: This pair still looks to be continuing its triangle breakout and continuation would bring the whole-number 2.0 S/R level back into focus.

Bullish targets: any bullish triangle breakout would have me looking to the 2.00 region as this is previous S/R.

Bearish targets: any bearish trend line breakout would have me looking for a test of the 1.920 region as this is near the 4hr chart’s 200 EMA and near the previously broken triangle trend line.

Watch the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines for any new breakout.

EUR/AUD: I’m struggling to see any decent patterns with this pair at the moment. So, I’ll leave this for this week.

EUR/NZD: This remains in the 4hr / weekly chart triangle for now.

Watch the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines for any new breakout.

Oil: Oil gave a great trend line breakout trade last week for 290 pips. There is a new triangle in place on the 4hr chart so watch this for any new breakout.