Investor flows post-ECB suggests EUR has further to fall, both against the USD and the crosses. 50% of the USD’s bought last week can be explained by EUR selling, a larger percentage than normal. As year-end approaches, long-term flows (real money accounts) will rise in importance. Hedge funds have a tendency to lighten positions and volumes typically decrease into December. RM, so far, has remained less bearish on EM than leveraged clients. The dominant flows in the G10 are selling of EUR, JPY and AUD. In EM FX, outflows have remained mild in aggregate, but it is a stock picker’s world in EM. Flows imply underperformance of HUF and potentially KRW, while outperformance of MYR and MXN.
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