CIBC – FX Flows: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom: New Zealand March trade balance swung into deficit, again at –Nzd86mio, both exports and imports up. NzdUsd totally unchanged at 0.7061/63. Talk of bids gathering ahead of 0.7050, not sure where they are from, don’t think they are from options. I suspect these could be the leveraged guys who sold between 0.73-0.74. We look to next week’s Q1 labour report on May 2. AudUsd selling from Japanese brought Kiwi down to low 50’s.

Profit taking in AudNzd? Seems so. Not much flows, we saw Tokyo names hitting bids into 0.7545. Chinese March industrial profits up 3.1%, this has been declining since Sept 2017.

UsdJpy has closed above the Ichimoku Cloud and just a thought, this is the fourth time we broke above the cloud but last 3 times it came back. Nikkei’s opened in positive territory but wasn’t impressive, it was up 0.7% and enthusiasm fizzled. UsdJpy has backed off, we saw some buying at fix and like the equity index, the pair didn’t get far. 109.50 is a hurdle, how large is the barrier? No idea but looks decent. When UsdJpy got to 109.15, rumour surfaced that buy orders scattered ahead of 109.00.

BoJ ended their party early with no surprises, they removed the statement on timing of reaching 2% goal around FY19, rest all unchanged. UsdJpy popped slightly to 109.22.

North Asian name was seller of EurUsd near 1.2100; we encountered buyers on the main e-platform but multi-banks were skewed to the left. I believed at that point that bank had hit several banks’ eFX, which explained the skew. EurUsd later got to 1.2098 but buying returned and took Euro back towards 1.2112. Please note, there is a 1.2100 option strike expiring today for Eur2.85bn. Near term support is at 1.2090.

Asians

When Kim meets the Moon. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-In meet at joint border village of Panmunjom inside the DMZ. Kim makes history as the first leader to enter South Korea since Korean war. Market took it positively, Onshore UsdKrw opened at 1075.0 but month-end demand has the pair towards 1078.7.

CNY fixed today at 6.3393, in my opinion, this is tad high. Onshore spot opened higher too at 6.3445 but then slipped back to 6.33-handle.

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