CIBC FX Flows: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom: I am told there will be buying of ETF today said to be near Jpy600mio. UsdJpy was dragged lower by weak equity market. Heard bids in UsdJpy are surrounding 111.00 – could that be the “Dark Lord”? On the other hand, there are about $2.7bn worth of 111.00 option strikes maturing this week. Offers are said to be above 100-Day and 200-Day SMAs.

Japanese names were buyers of NzdUsd and NzdCad but risk off brought them lower. Subtle buying reported around 0.6840 in NzdUsd.

Risk-off mood has the Jpy-crosses lower, EurJpy is back on the radar. The cross peaked at 133.18, failed to clear last Friday’s high 133.24. Sales from fast money accounts drove the cross to 132.725, where the 50-Day SMA is at 132.71.

EurUsd weakened to 1.1912. We saw some bottom-pickers in the low 1.1920’s but this could extend to 1.1880. Germans have passed the political instability baton to the Irish. FT said PM Leo Varadkar is holding talks with Fianna Fail to break the impasse.

FT article said that German-headquartered Qiagen and MSD will today reveal more than Gbp1bn worth of investments in UK, creating about 1750 jobs. This is a much needed boost for PM Theresa May. GbpUsd also traded lower, with nothing really outstanding. Plentiful news over the weekend WRT Brexit.

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Emerging Market

The South African Rand opened near 14.1500 and drifted lower towards 14.05. Over the weekend, South Africa Finance Ministry said that it will use its annual budget next year to outline “decisive” policy to strengthen its fiscal framework. The ministry said that restoring business and consumer confidence, and catalysing inclusive growth is the top priority of government.

North Asia real money accounts have again sold short-dated UsdTwd NDF, regular hedging. However, Usd is bid across Asian currencies following the stock market.

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