Nobody is interested in trading at the moment with some big weekend risk events looming, but the order books in the Aussie are still quite full.
CTAs have been the main sellers in recent days and their modus operandi is usually to add to positions on rallies. That should ensure that intraday rallies towards .7800 in AUD/USD meet plentiful supply.
Reserve managers and real-money funds have been reportedly buying on any 50/70 pip dips and as long as this continues, the AUD/USD is unlikely to break lower.
So, .7650/.7800 should cover all eventualities and the true range is likely to be much tighter than that, given the current lack of momentum in the market.
I’m maintaining a strong bullish bias for the AUD across the board.
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