THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU
INTRODUCTION:
So, last week was quite an amusing week. Looking back, the main events were: the dentist for me; the vet for my dogs, the snow has finally cleared away and we have had a couple of BBQ’s again. With regards to Forex, it’s the same old crap. It is still a chop fest and now I am becoming increasingly certain that the only way to trade todays current FX market is either to be in and out in 15 minutes maximum, or, to take the longer-term view and ride out the chop fest with clear directional trading based on both FUNDAMENTALS and TECHNICALS.
If you constantly have to click entries and exits, take small losses followed by small gains, or vice-versa, the only winner is your broker. I would say right now and for the past couple of months they have been rubbing their hands together at the end of each week shouting “suckers” from the rooftops. The more trades you do the more your broker benefits!
My trading results are really strong on my POSITION TRADES and whilst my LIMIT/STOP order entry trade styles RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL are also good, I am closing some trades too early as the range extremes become too silly. My FLASH trades are positive and making money but I am really finding pullback trading a little harder to be trusted in the chop.
This week I have add just under 500 pips to the monthly and annual totals. It would have been more but a couple of losses pegged the increase back a little, although I am not be complaining. The great thing is with all charts / excel spreadsheets / reports and trade management, I can see what is and much more importantly what is NOT working.
At the end of the day, I was speaking to one my subscribers last week, and trying to get across that in my opinion, Forex Trading is really in its simplest format… “Selling spikes and buying dips” as most of the time we are in a range of one sort or another. I know that that statement can be an over-simplification but add in Fibonacci levels and an awareness of central bank monetary policy and you are well over half of the way there… no matter where it is!!
THE FX MARKET PLACE:
LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:
I must be getting older… I have to keep looking back to remember what happened last week!
The standouts were weak. US data early in the week (Retail Sales and PPi) then blow out Aussie jobs data; in the middle, and a rather benign BOC performance. At the end of the week, good data from China that supported and, at the same time probably relieved the Aussie and Kiwi markets. The China data certainly kept the AUD and NZD well bid.
The latter part of the week had OIL that dominating proceedings, with the DOHA Oil summit due Sunday 17th April. I am currently long USD/CAD in a POSITION TRADE and I will be holding this through the weekend of the summit. I had considered closing this trade, and I had mentioned this to subscribers but having thought more about it, my thoughts are OPEC and, in fact all OIL producing countries have in the past demonstrated even less of a union than the EUROZONE… enough said. Unless there is a major geopolitical news event I just cannot see a “nose-bleed” style of announcement emanating from this gathering. One should also bear in mind these guys and gal are only meeting for 60-90 minutes. I for one would be amazed, if we had freezes in production, cuts in production or anything substantial at all. However, I wait to be amazed bring it on!
Basically, last week was more of the same as in prior weeks, chop, chop and more chop.
I keep trying to explain that we have uncertainty. I blame the FED. They are too diverse with their comments about policy. Yet, like little puppies they are towing the line when Yellen commands. Allowing these fecking numpties to have their own opinions outside of the FOMC when they are obviously full of fear to speak up is a bad thing. I hate to say this but the ECB has more discipline at the moment and for me not only to think this but also write it is huge statement.
Basically, the Fed needs to come down off the damn fence and raise rates. 0.25% is NOT going to effect Main Street, alas maybe Wall Street will have to think a little differently, and here lies the problem. Wall Street is too influential in the U.S.
Instead of an enabler to move the U.S. economy forward Wall Street and all that goers with it is a BLOCKAGE. Wall Street needs a bloody good enema to clear out the sh*t. Then maybe the U.S. can move forward. I keep hearing the U.S. is the biggest and best at everything. As I have said before if the biggest and the best, most resilient economy in the world cannot stomach another poultry 0.25%, after 8 years of a ZIRP (Zero interest Rate Policy) ….. give me a break!.
WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:
ARE WE STILL IN A DIVERGENT MONETARY POLICY ENVIRONMENT?
Where do I get these questions from and do I know the answers before I write them down? The answer is I have no idea and no!
In trying to put on paper some thoughts that may stimulate the grey matter, I have to contain myself to be concise here.
There is 100% no doubt in my mind that this year 2016, is NOT going the way that I thought it would have, based on my knowledge of matters and fundamental views at the end of 2015.
The FED has stalled.
Yellen has in my opinion created uncertainty. This is the very thing her key job specification role and responsibility says that she is NOT to do. We can all sit around a table with a few bottles of RED and debate this with a plethora of opinions but the bottom line is that the FED has stalled.
The U.S. economy is either as good as Obama says or it’s down crapper as the Donald says… which is it?
I have kind of given away my thoughts on this earlier by saying its NOT down to Yellen and the FOMC. They probably have to wait for the all clear from Goldman Sachs before doing anything with interest rates.
Currency markets are so range bound it is quite incredible. Yes, we have had a JPY move and a RBNZ move of late but apart from these two bigger moves, feck all has happened. The EUR/USD has been stuck in a 200-pip range that has now tightened for the past week or so to just 100 pips.
The larger directional trades based around DIVERGENCE just have not been there to call. Yes, I know my POSITION trades are making great profits but not from the pairs I was predicting late 2015! The USD has basically struggled this year, its down about 6.5% year to date, this was NOT part of my TRADE PLAN for 2016.
BREXIT has created issues for the cable, but the BREXIT fears have not weakened the single currency. The EUR has remained in a tight range really, if anything this year the EUR/USD had strengthened rather than weakened. The BRITS are no way near raising rates. If Mark Carney ever talks about raising rates again and the markets believe him, well God help us all. Carney’s job spec has in it “must mislead markets and frustrate the crap out of traders”. If he ever suggests raising rates, somebody needs to give him a kick in the gonads/ samosas and tell him to try again with his speech. If anything, I think the BRITS will be doing more easing, never mind raising rates.
Kuroda and Abe are so far up their own asses in crap neither of them can hear what the other one is saying. Forget about Japan raising rates. I think I will be dead and buried and pushing up daisies long before Japan raises rates. Not in my lifetime!
Mario Draghi is putting on his blue tie again this week as well as his tin foil hat as he enters the “Shark Tank / Dragon’s Den” once again. Given his screw up last time about saying to the press “And that’s all folks”, I think he may choose his words a little more carefully. Whilst the EUROZONE is showing signs of life, lets get this in some perspective. When you were up to your waist in sht and now you are up to your thighs in sht you are still deep in sht its just different proportions. The EUROZONE will be easing through 2016 and 2017 and beyond. There are so many negatives, sht farming will soon be claimed back through the “Common Agricultural Policy”.
By the way, I am expecting a surprise from Draghi to send the EUR/USD back to 1.0800 and below. Am I serious…. definitely not! I am expecting a boring press conference. It would be great though if Mario delivered a BAZOOKA that actually worked the way it is intended to work. We live in hope, but that’s about all.
Glenn Stevens basically said it all without saying anything to blame the FED for the external pressures on the Australian Economy. Geographical restrictions and commodity prices will keep a lid on the RBA raising rates.
The RBNZ is the central bank that has basically told the markets that they are deep in sh*t and that they WILL BE cutting rates again at least once this year (Lets hope the next time, the decision isn’t leaked like the last one).
Stephen Poloz at the BOC is sitting pretty at the moment with economic data turning in his favour. By the year-end I predict at least two cuts and easing policy in place. The Canadian economy is NOT wholly reliant on oil but there is a housing bubble about to burst in Vancouver and Toronto and when this is added to the oil industry job cuts directly and indirectly associated, the head in the sand management by Poloz will be seen to be grossly behind the curve and exceptional measures will be introduced. So… no rate rises in Canada either.
Without touching emerging markets and ignoring the likes of Turkey and Brazil that both have issues, from the major central banks I have not yet mentioned the SNB.
The SNB, will I would say be bracing themselves for a flight to safety trade around the BREXIT vote. I would not rule out man of the year 2015 Thomas Jordan stuffing the negative deposit rate a little higher. Do not rule anything out. The EUR/CHF is back below 1.1000 and I am certain that the SNB would prefer the EUR/CHF back at 1.2000. This looks highly unlikely without a geopolitical event and then a fresh floor being introduced, but I am certain that at least 1.1300 to 1.1500 must be the level they now have their eyes on. Never rule out action from the SNB.
So, having gone full circle nothing has FUNDAMENTALLY changed apart from the number of potential interest rate hikes from the FED.
Those pundits looking for a “one and done” for 2016 are in cuckoo land as far as I am concerned. If things are as bad as Trump says, we are heading for a recession and the FED has nothing “behind the clock” for a rainy day.
I stick by my guns that the goal must be 1.00% by year-end.
Back to my original question, are we are in a divergent monetary policy situation? Yes we are, however, the markets are being encouraged not to believe it through FED dithering which manifests as great uncertainty.
COMING UP THIS WEEK:
THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:
(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to www.forexfactory.com and www.tradingeconomics.com for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).
SUNDAY: NZD – CPi.
MONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
TUESDAY: AUD – RBA Glenn Stevens speaks.
TUESDAY: GBP – BOE Mark Carney speaks.
TUESDAY: CAD – BOC Stephen Poloz speaks.
TUESDAY: NZD – GDT prices. (Dairy Auction prices)
WEDNESDAY: GBP – Jobs data.
THURSDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.
THURSDAY: EUR – ECB Interest Rates and Press Conference.
FRIDAY: CAD – Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.
THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW):
(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)
My comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.
EUR/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 1.1283
GBP/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 1.4197
AUD/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 0.7720
NZD/USD – Weekly Closing Price: 0.6915
USD/CAD – Weekly Closing Price: 1.2814
USD/CHF – Weekly Closing Price: 0.9675
USD/JPY – Weekly Closing Price: 108.74
MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Quite a bit of central bakers speaking this week. The catering industry will be on RED alert, a few posh lunches washed down with some good vintage port and a selection of nicely put together aged cheeses…yummo.
After the central bakers it’s really the ECB. I cannot in all honesty expect a Draghi BAZOOOKA at all. However as Peter Sellers used to say to Kato in the Pink Panther movies, “Always expect the unexpected”, so we live in hope.
No matter what, we are still in a tighter range bound market and the chop fest. So be careful trading. I am still stuck in several trades that are just consolidating. I am, what you would call, just sitting.
As always, be savvy…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Take care,
Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
DATE: 16th April 2016
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