Gold and Silver are both hovering near major support levels ahead of Wednesday’s April FOMC meeting. The outcome of this meeting has the potential to shift the US$ and, thus, both of these metals. In this post I look at the charts of both metals and some of the key ETFs and stocks in an attempt to identify key levels to watch price, potentially, pivot from in any FOMC-related movement. If so, I will also be looking to the ADX indicator for evidence of increasing momentum to support any such breakout move.
Gold: The last major swing high move with Gold went from October 2008 until September 2011. In that time period price rallied from a low of $679.55 to a high of $1,920.70. Since 2011 price has retreated to find support from the 61.8% fib level of that move. Traders will be watching to see how the US$ moves and, then, what impact any movement has on Gold.
Gold monthly: You can see how this price action has created a triangle pattern on the monthly chart. Time will tell if this evolves into one enormous Bull Flag! The 61.8% fib is near the $1,145 level and is clearly the level to watch if bearish sentiment picks up for Gold. Any break below $1,145 support would bring the psychological $1,000 level into focus and, then, the 78.6% fib down near $950 and the monthly 200 EMA:
Gold weekly: this chart shows a descending channel within the monthly triangle:
Gold daily: this chart shows a possible bullish descending wedge forming within the channel that is within the triangle! The $1,200 is a strong S/R level and looks to be the level to watch for any breakout following FOMC. Levels to watch with any bullish continuation will be the daily 200 EMA and then the $1,250 level followed by the weekly chart’s trading channel trend line:
Gold 4hr: the $1,200 is near the bear trend line of the descending wedge pattern:
GDX weekly: Gold Miners ETF: this looks to be forming a bullish descending wedge ahead of FOMC. The $20 level looks to be the one to watch here:
GDXJ weekly: Junior Gold Miners ETF: the $20 level is key here too:
GLD weekly: Gold ETF: it’s no surprise that this chart looks similar to that of the Gold weekly chart above.
GG weekly: GoldCorp:a triangle here too so watch trend lines but the $20 looks important as well:
RGLD: Royal Gold: watch the triangle trend lines here too:
Silver: The last major swing high move with Silver went from October 2008 until April 2011. In that time period price rallied from a low of $8.40 to a high of $49.78. Since 2011 price has retreated to beyond the 78.6% fib level of that move and found support just above $15. As with Gold, traders will be watching to see how the US$ moves and, then, what impact any movement has on Silver.
Silver Monthly: this chart shows a triangle of sorts has formed up but the $16 and $15 levels are key support levels to watch if bearish sentiment picks up. Conversely, any bullish continuation would see the triangle trend line come into focus:
Silver weekly: Price action is trading close into the apex of this triangle so watch the the trend lines for any breakout move:
Silver daily: price has been consolidating either side of the $16 level over recent weeks:
Silver 4hr: watch how price moves away from $16 and then the trend lines above and below and, if the breakout is bearish, then the $15 level:
SI weekly: Silver spot price: no surprise to see how this is shaping up similarly to the charts above. Price action is being wedge into the triangle apex here so watch for any trend line breakout. The $15 level looks to be major support:
SLV weekly: Silver ETF: also a similar chart here. Watch the triangle trend lines and the $15 level:
SLW weekly: Silver Wheaton: A triangle of sorts here too but the $20 is also worth watching:
Summary: Silver and Gold are both trading above support and any continued US$ weakness could see them rally after a length period of decline. However, any return with US$ strength could place these two under more pressure and initiate a new down trend.
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