EURUSD: 1.1965 |
€/Usd has traded lower on Monday, falling to the Fibo support at 1.1960 in seeing a low of 1.1955. The recent move higher does seem to be running out of steam and while the momentum indicators are mixed, a move towards 1.1900/1.1885 would not now really surprise, with the 9 month rising trend support currently sitting at 1.1830. On the topside, back above the session high of 1.2055, unlikely I think, would allow for a run back towards 1.2080/90, and if we can take out the 8 Sept high of 1.2098, it would then open up the chance of a move towards 1.2160 and in the bigger picture, towards 1.24 (200 MMA). Today will look to the German Industrial Production, Trade Balance, the EU Unemployment and the ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for inspiration but the bigger picture will continue to look towards the Italian election (Mar 4) and also as to how Angela Merkel comes out of her negotiations with the SDP and the CSU in order to re-establish her coalition power base. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed – Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Possible topping formation | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
Preferred Strategy: With the momentum indicators generally seeming to hint that a top may be in place, selling rallies does now seem to be the plan.Sell EurUsd @ 1.2000. SL @ 1.2060, TP @ 1.1900 | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
1.2091 | 8 Sept high | 1.1960/55 | (23.6% of 1.553/1.2025)/Session low | ||
1.2088/82 | 4 Jan high/5 Jan high | 1.1920 | Minor | ||
1.2051 | Session high | 1.1900 | Minor | ||
1.2020 | Minor | 1.1885 | (38.2% of 1.553/1.2025) | ||
1.1990 | 200 HMA | 1.1845 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
German Industrial Production, Trade Balance, EU Unemployment, ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
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USDJPY: 113.08 |
US$Jpy briefly headed higher in Asia/Europe on Monday in reaching 113.38 before falling quite sharply to 112.87 and then consolidating near 113.00 for the balance of the session. With the momentum indicators generally looking pretty flat on Tuesday, and with little to provide inspiration until the US CPI on Friday, I suspect further choppy sideways trade within the broad 112/114 range is in store. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Mixed. | Daily Indicators: Neutral | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
Preferred Strategy: As with Monday, I don’t really have too much of a directional view of US$Jpy right now although while the stock market continues to make gains the dollar should remain well underpinned. 113.30/40 should continue to see decent sellers although a break would allow 113.75/80 and possible 114.00. Above 114.20 would then see a break of the descending trend resistance which could see an acceleration higher. On the downside, support will be seen at there are buyers at 112.70 while stronger support lies in the 112/112.30 area.US$Jpy range trade 112.50/113.50 | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
114.20 | Descending trend resistance | 112.87 | Session low | ||
114.00 | Minor | 112.80 | 200 HMA | ||
113.75/80 | 12 Dec high /(76.4% of 114.73/110.83) | 112.50 | Minor | ||
113.63 | 21 Dec high | 112.35 | 200 WMA | ||
113.38 | Session high | 112.02 | 15 Dec low |
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GBPUSD: 1.3566 |
Sterling traded a choppy, sideways range on Monday (1.3522/85) as traders concentrate on the changes to the UK cabinet announced by the PM, Theresa May. Brexit woes do seem to be waning for the time being and if this remains the case Sterling will outperform against the Euro, s selling that cross may be a plan. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning higher? | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? | |||
Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are still mixed and a neutral stance is probably wise, but the dailies still look mildly constructive so, buying dips currently seems to be the plan while keeping a tight stop in place. With the Euro looking heavy, selling EurGbp may be a better plan.Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3500. SL @ 1.3475, TP @ 1.3600 | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
1.3700 | Minor | 1.3550 | Minor | ||
1.3656 | 20 Sept high | 1.3522 | 5 Jan low /Session low | ||
1.3635 | Minor | 1.3494 | 3 Jan low | ||
1.3612 | 3 Jan high | 1.3480 | 200 HMA | ||
1.3585 | Session high | 1.3475 | (23.6% of 1.3038/1.3612) |
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USDCHF: 0.9774 |
US$Chf traded sideways in choppy fashion on Monday, confined to 0.9738/85 and leaving a neutral stance as the best option for Tuesday. While the daily charts are still pointing lower, they may be basing out and with the short term momentum indicators look a little more constructive, if 0.9785 can be overcome, we could then see a run back to 0.9800/05, beyond which would open 0.9830/40. On the downside, support will be seen at 0.9730/40 below which could see a decline to 0.9700, and potentially 0.9650 although this now looks less likely. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral –Turning higher? | Daily Indicators: Turning lower – Possible basing formation? | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
Preferred Strategy: The dailies are still heavy but the 4 hour charts are picking up some positive momentum, so, while a neutral stance is probably wise, I mildly prefer to look to buy dips today, hoping for a break of 0.9800.But US$Chf @ 0.9740. SL @ 0.9690, TP @ 0.9825. | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
0.9870 | (61.8% of 0.9977/0.9699) | 0.9738 | 5 Jan low/Session low | ||
0.9835 | (50% of 0.9977/0.9699) | 0.9720 | Minor | ||
0.9805 | (38.2% of 0.9977/0.9699) | 0.9699 | 2 Jan low | ||
0.9797 | 3 Jan high | 0.9685 | Minor | ||
0.9780/83 | 100 DMA/200 DMA /5 Jan high/Session high | 0.9655 | (61.8% of 0.9420/01.0037) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Unemployment
…
AUDUSD: 0.7841 |
After an early high of 0.7872, AudUsd traded down to a low of 7826, led by a sharp fall in AudJpy, but it has held on above 0.7825/30 support and has spent the rest of the session consolidating near 0.7840. Traders will now look to the ANZ Job Ads and the November Building Permits for guidance. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower. | Daily Indicators: Up – Possible topping formation? | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
Preferred Strategy: The 4 hour indicators still look a little heavy so another move back towards 0.7825/30 would not surprise, below which, 0.7800/0.7810 would attract. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.7850 and at 0.7870 although this is now beginning to look a little toppish.I remain neutral but it may be worth selling 0.7860, with a tight SL above 0.7890 | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
0.7935 | Descending trend resistance | 0.7850 | Minor | ||
0.7910 | Monthly cloud base | 0.7826 | Session low/Rising trend support | ||
0.7889 | 13 Oct high | 0.7815 | Minor | ||
0.7872 | Session high | 0.7790 | 2 Jan low | ||
0.7850 | Minor | 0.7780 | 100 DMA / (23.6% of 0.7500/0.7870) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
ANZ Job Ads, Building Permits
…
NZDUSD: 0.7177 |
The Kiwi traded up 0.7183 on Tuesday, closing nearby, and with the dailies looking positive further gains would seems possible in the days ahead, although with the 4 hour charts still showing a degree of bearish divergence a cautious stance is warranted. At these levels though I prefer to remain flat. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Mixed. | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
Preferred Strategy: The outlook is pretty much the same as that for the Aud, and a neutral stance is currently preferred although if the dollar stays soft and risk-sentiment positive, then a run above 0.7200 should not be ruled out. The short term momentum indicators are showing some bearish divergence and another drift back towards 0.7145/50 would not surprise. | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
0.7244 | 29 Sept high | 0.7149/44 | Session low/5 Jan low | ||
0.7225 | Minor | 0.7130 | Minor | ||
0.7210 | 13 Oct high | 0.7105 | 200 DMA/55 WMA | ||
0.7200 | Minor | 0.7090 | (23.6% of 0.6787/0.7186)/200 HMA | ||
0.7183/86 | Session high/5 Jan high | 0.7065 | 100 WMA |
By January 9, 2018
Source: FXCharts