7 Nov: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas: FXCharts

As before, as long as the Euro should hold below 1.1675 on a daily-close basis, with the eventual target being at around 1.1250, pretty much in line with the 200 DMA and if we do see a daily close below 1.1570 at any stage we may begin to see an acceleration to the downside, to where 1.1510 will be the next support.

If wrong, a topside break of 1.1675 would trigger stops and could see a run back to 1.1700 where the 100 DMA will provide stern resistance, but above there could see a bigger squeeze towards 1.18000. At this stage this looks doubtful. As long as we don’t see a daily close above 1.1700, I prefer to trade from the short side.

Note that Mario Draghi will be speaking today.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1670 & @ 1.1700. SL @ 1.1730, TP @ 1.1500.

On the downside, support will be seen at the rising trend support at 113.60 and at 113.50, below which could then head back to the 31 Oct low (112.95) although this seems unlikely today. If wrong, a sustained break of 113.00 would see us back in the previous 112/113 range, where 112.75 would be the first level of support ahead of 112.30.

On the topside, minor resistance now lies at 114.00 and above, towards the 114.73 session high, but above which could see a test of the descending trend resistance, currently at around 114.90. A break of 115.00 would then see little resistance until 115.20 and then 115.50.

I remain fairly neutral, although I still like the dollar in the medium term and prefer to buy dips. Today there may be better levels to do so than we are currently trading at given that the 4 hour momentum indicators do look a little heavy.

On the downside, support will be seen at 1.3150 and then at 1.3130, below which could see a run back to 1.3100 and the session low of 1.3057 although this looks unlikely.

Stay neutral for the time being although the mild preference is to look for levels to buy dips. A rally in the dollar though would probably negate this outlook, so caution is required.

With the daily/weekly momentum indicators generally looking positive, further dollar strength could be in store down the track and if we can regain parity we could then head on to take another look at 1.0040. Above this there is little to hold the dollar up ahead of 1.0100, and beyond that to 1.1025 and 1.0170.

For now, look for the dollar to chop around current levels and possibly to head a little lower, but with the view of buying dips for an eventual move towards 1.1000+.

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9940. SL @ 0.9885, TP @ 1.0070.

On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.7700 ahead of 0.7720 and then 0.7740. Given the generally heavy look of the charts I still prefer to sell into strength. Being Melbourne Cup day, interest will be limited.

On the downside, a move back below 0.6900 could see a retest of 0.6875/80, below which could then see a return to 0.6850. Under there would find strong support at 0.6830 and again at 0.6817, where we have the double bottom with the May low. Below that though would then find that there is little support ahead of 0.6670 although I don’t think we head anywhere close for the time being.  Note that the Global Dairy Trade Index is due later today.